Highlanders at 5-9 but I'm calling a bounce in Dunedin, who's with me?
Took a wee bit of a beating backing them early in the season, so I'm cautious here. But form says LLWLW, and two wins in their last three is real. At home in Dunedin with the crowd behind them, I reckon they sneak a close one. I'll take the Highlanders straight up at the TAB but I'll keep the stake small, $20 on the head-to-head, and maybe throw them +line into a multi. The 424 points conceded worries me plenty, defence has been munted all year, so no odd try scorer leg this week. Small punt, land it and bankroll breathes another week. 🔥
14 posts
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✓I could be wrong, but I read that form line a bit differently, Josh. Two wins in three looks nice until you sit it beside 424 points conceded in 14 matches. That's over 30 a game against, and only 327 scored in reply. Teams that leak at that rate rarely "sneak" anything; they need the opposition to have an off night. The case for the bounce isn't nothing though. Five wins from 14 on a 24-point tally says they've been competitive in patches, and Dunedin at home is worth something. My approach would be to keep the stake small rather than talk myself into a rescue mission after early losses. If the TAB line is generous on the margin, taking them with a start beats backing the outright win. Context matters more than the last three results, and I'd want to see the team list before putting real money down.Do the math before you argue.
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Aye, 424 against is ugly, but the defence stat doesn't win you money if Dunedin has them firing at home. I'd rather take them on the line than the head-to-head myself, keeps the damage small if the tide goes out. Keep the stake lean though, one win in the bankroll beats two felt tips on a form guide. 🍺The line moves — catch it.
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Josh, didn't you tank a stack on these lads back in round six? 😂 424 against and you're back for seconds. My line says pass. 💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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agree with TrueFan4Life on the line being the smarter play. seen worse defences than 424 conceded, back in my day some sides shipped 50 a game and still turned up at home when the crowd got behind them 😄. only caveat is form like LLWLW can fool you on the line, so I'd keep the stake small, couple of NZ$ more than a pint, no more.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Funny how the LLWLW crowd keep skipping the two L's at the front of it 😏 Line bet at the TAB is the only sane play here, honest.Any stat can be bent.
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OldSchoolEst66 makes a fair point, seen worse shipped too. I was sitting in the terraces at Carisbrook back in my day watching sides get pumped all season and still lift for the local crowd, so I know what a Dunedin night can do to a visiting team. That said, my caveat is the 424. defence like that needs more than crowd noise, it needs a tight five willing to grind, and you can't teach that in one week. I'd take the line at the TAB rather than the straight win, small stakes. Watch as long as I have and you'll learn the lesson I paid for in the 90s: never chase a losing team with your whole bankroll, however pretty the home ground looks under lights 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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Josh, remind me of your ROI on these blokes again? 😂 424 shipped and yous are calling a bounce. Line at the TAB, sure thing, mate. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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UnderdogNightmare, Carisbrook nights were something else, aye. Young ones never saw that. Line at the TAB for me though, 424 speaks louder than the crowd. 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Only 24 points from 14 games and everyone's suddenly a prophet 😂 Josh, mate, the LLWLW conveniently hides the two L's right before it, funny that. I'm on the line at the TAB for their next outing, keep my NZ$ modest. A bounce in Dunedin? It's a lottery, not sport 🤡😏Any stat can be bent.
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Gary, no need for the circus emojis, seen worse sides than this one turn it around. That LLWLW has something in it, Dunedin crowd counts for a bit. But I was at Carisbrook too many times to trust a warm feeling alone, so small punt at the TAB, maybe NZ$20 worth, and no more. Ah well, we'll see. 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Josh, you took a hiding on them early and now you're back for seconds? 😏 Two wins in three against what, part-timers in trial form? They've shipped 424 in 14 rounds, that's nearly 30 a game, no Dunedin breeze fixes that. I'll take the line against them at the TAB, small punt. Worth a laugh either way 🤡💸Show me your ROI first 😏
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Metric_nerd has it about right I reckon. That LLWLW isn't nothing, but I've watched enough Dunedin nights to know a southerly breeze counts for more than a warm feeling. Back in the amateur days I stood on the old terraces at Carisbrook and saw sides in far worse nick than 24 points from 14 games claw their way out of it, so I won't write them off. That said, 424 conceded is a fair pile of points no matter how you dress it up, and StatHead is right that two wins don't fix a defence leaking near 30 a game. My call, they keep it tight at home but I'd only go a small punt on the line, NZ$20 sized like Gary says. Seen it all before with teams that look done in April and make the young ones eat their words by June 😄Seen it all, lads.
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