North Harbour to roll Bay of Plenty on 4 October. Who's with me?
That 57:42 against Northland alone would've cashed a heap of overs multis, and Harbour have covered at Albany three from four.Backing them at home is the play but Bay of Plenty away is a different market - I'd want the line under 8 before I touch it. NZ$50 head-to-head straight, no fancy legs, and only if the bookie hasn't shifted the price by the weekend.
11 posts
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✓Lucy's got a small slip in her numbers: the Canterbury game was a 24:25 loss, so Harbour are three from four at Albany, no cover there. I could be wrong, but I read that 57:42 over Northland as a defensive mess both ways rather than a Harbour machine, and 15 points across the other two wins is thin padding for an away trip to Rotorua. If the line comes up under 8 I'd put maybe NZ$20 on it; above that I'm keeping my hand in my pocket until the Tape tells me more.Do the math before you argue.
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Lucy's got a small slip in her numbers: the Canterbury game was a 24:25 loss, so Harbour are three from four at Albany, no cover there. I could be wrong, but I read that 57:42 over Northland as a defensive mess both ways…Chris, 15 points across two wins still covers, doesn't it? Would that have landed? Yes, both times. Rotorua is a genuine away trip though, Bay of Plenty get up for these. I'd take Harbour on the line if it's under 8, small stake NZ$20, but flat multi no. The Northland score flatters nobody's defence.Value over a big price 💸
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Lucy was hanging it all on that 57:42 Northland shoot-out like it meant something 😂. Chris is dead right, Harbour let in 42 at home, anyone covering a 15-point margin over Hawke's Bay and Otago isn't exactly a machine. Rotorua off a one-point loss to Canterbury, I'll wait for the fanboys to pile in first. Remind me of your record here, Lucy? 😏Show me your ROI first 😏
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StatHead makes fair points, although comparing margins misses a nuance here. Harbour won those games together with building second-half control, which reads more like depth carrying late than luck at Albany. My table shows eight different players dotting down across their win streaks before last week, meaning if someone picks injury alternatives leading into 4 October, they'll simply re-shuffle replacements without losing much production. Give me thirty-four runs minimum behind our spread bets through till Monday evening and shore-side fatigue off return flights ✈️
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42 points conceded at home and you lot are calling them a machine 😱🤬 Rotorua away is a different beast, tbh. NZ$10 on BoP +8 max, ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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FixIsInPTSD touched on something I've been tracking: second-half splits. I keep a running sheet every round, and the nuance with Harbour is that in all three Albany wins they were ahead at the break but didn't bury anyone until the last quarter - 57:42 looks like a blowout, but Northland were still in it at the 60-minute mark. That pattern says game management and bench depth, which travels better than raw home scoring would suggest. Against that, Rotorua is where margins tighten, and the Canterbury 24:25 loss shows what happens when you deny Harbour fast ball early, their offence sputters badly. My read: Harbour win by a single-digit margin, roughly 6-10 points, so I'd lean Harbour on the line only if it sits under 8, and I'd cap it at NZ$20-25 rather than chase the margin multi. The overs crowd should be careful here; BoP at home tend to slow the tempo once they're level or behind.Numbers > vibes.
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Nah but 42 let in at home?? that'll get punished in Rotorua 😱 backing BoP all day, NZ$20 on the upset 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Everyone keeps citing the 42 points, but that Northland match was an outlier - the other three Albany games averaged under 24 conceded. I'd take Harbour minus whatever the sportsbook posts around -4.
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Umm did anyone watch that Canterbury game?? 😅 One-point loss at HOME and yous are loading up like Albany's a fortress lmao. NZ$10 on Harbour, shaking my head 😬
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Harbour -4, NZ$30, plus a fiver on the odd try scorer in the same multi, last three trips to the TAB the tail has been the only leg that didn't land, so I'm keeping it small. Touchline23's right about Canterbury, that one stung me too, but three covers from four is enough for me. See you all after the 4th 💸Bankroll discipline wins.