Is the TAB line underrating Manawatu after that 40-34 win in Auckland?
Chucking 40 on Auckland away and following it up a week after losing to Waikato? That's chaos form, and chaos form is exactly what the TAB prices poorly. Canterbury scraping past Harbour by one doesn't scare me off Manawatu at home either. I've had a small play on the line already, value over a big price every time. 💸
15 posts
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✓JoshBlues, the caveat on that Auckland result is the sample: one chaotic 40-34 away win sandwiched by a 27-36 loss to Waikato a week earlier, so the attack spike might be noise rather than level. Canterbury's 25-24 escape at Harbour reads worse on paper, but they backed it with a tidy 34-21 over Southland, and there's a nuance here. Home field for Manawatu matters less than the TAB pricing their volatility. I'd want the line before touching it; two weeks of form is a small sample though.
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JoshBlues, the caveat on that Auckland result is the sample: one chaotic 40-34 away win sandwiched by a 27-36 loss to Waikato a week earlier, so the attack spike might be noise rather than level. Canterbury's 25-24 escap…One noisy result, sure, but the Waikato loss and the Auckland win point the same direction defensively: Manawatu have shipped 34 and 36 in back-to-back weeks. That's not an attack spike, that's a leaky side all round, and Canterbury just put 34 on Southland at home. JoshBlues is talking like the Auckland 40 settles it; FixIsInPTSD is right that it's one game, but nobody here has actually addressed whether the line accounts for Manawatu conceding 70 across two matches. My condition for touching Manawatu at home is simple: if the TAB has them giving less than a goal's worth of meat, fine, small play. If Canterbury are still getting points on the road after escaping Harbour by one, I don't see the value either way. Show me the numbers on who the TAB has favoured and by how much, because right now everyone's arguing form narratives without stating the actual line. Sounds good but half a story so far.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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One 40-34 in Auckland and suddenly the line's wrong? Source on that being form and not a fluke against a side with nothing to defend? Canterbury's one-point escape beats any chaos theory, honestly.
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Took a small NZ$20 punt on Manawatu +line last weekend purely off a hunch, so I've got skin in this one 😄 The thing the "fluke" crowd are missing: away wins in Auckland don't come from luck, you have to outscore a decent side 40-34 in their own yard. But I won't touch it at a short price, the giveaway is both matches feature Manawatu conceding mid-30s, and Canterbury's 34 on Southland says they travel with points in them. My angle is the overs/total market rather than sweating the head-to-head, plus Manawatu +line as the value leg of the multi if TAB keeps padding Canterbury because of the name. If that line lands under a converted try, I'm on. 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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Katie, one 40-burger against an Auckland side that had already downed tools proves what exactly? Manawatu leaked 34 and 36 in consecutive weeks. Canterbury just hung 34 on Southland. Where's the actual source that this gap is real, beyond a hunch and NZ$20 of skin in the game? I'll believe it when I see it.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Hannah's got a point about the defence, but lines are set week to week. I'd rather back the side trending up than one that needed a missed conversion 😅 Watching the Waikato loss killed my multi though. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Trending up based on what, Andy, one good week? They lost to Waikato the week before Auckland. Define "trending", because 2 of 3 results say otherwise.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Edge case for me: I don't touch sides off one blowout. Waikato put 36 on them, Hannah's defence worry is real, but the line usually prices away form from a fortnight back, and that Auckland win will move it. I'm waiting to see where it lands Thursday, if it drifts towards Canterbury beyond what my gut says, that's when the NZ$30 goes on Manawatu +line and forgotten. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Half this thread is arguing about form from two different weeks like they're the same thing. Manawatu conceded 34 and 36 in consecutive weeks, then Auckland let them walk away with 40 - Chloe's right that the line will drift off that one game, but a punter paying the inflated price is buying the Auckland result and ignoring the Waikato one. Canterbury leaked 24 to Harbour, sure, yet they also beat Southland comfortably a week later. I'll believe the "gap" when someone shows me anything beyond one road win.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Fix is onto something about weeks blending together, but I'd add the angle nobody's priced: home turf at FMG. Manawatu at Palmerston North is a different animal to that road trip schedule, back-to-back away games at Waikato and Auckland, then finally sleeping in your own bed. That's worth a few points the market always underrates in the NPC. Chloe's right the line will drift once everyone's seen the 40-burger, question is whether it drifts enough to kill the value. My play is holding off until Thursday, seeing where the TAB lands it — if Canterbury are still giving anything north of 10 I'm having a slice of Manawatu getting that many at home, despite shipping 34 and 36 the last two weeks. Defence worry is legit though, so small stakes only. If it tightens to single figures I'll just watch with a beer 🍺The line moves — catch it.
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Sleeping in your own bed counts as an angle now? Conceding 34 and 36 away is the actual data, SupporterFan. Show me the numbers on home advantage before I pay for it.
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Chaos form pays my multi when it lands, and 40 away will get overpriced respect. But conceding 34 then 36? I'd need the line past double digits before touching Manawatu. 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Watched the line on this one all week - it barely moved after the Auckland win, which tells me TAB isn't buying the chaos form either. Small punt on Manawatu +9 for me, only because I once loaded up on them away and it hurt. 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.