Crusaders on a four-match tear from 8th to 3rd
Went through them in my head all week and I reckon I'm backing the top-four finish at the TAB, even if the price isn't juicy anymore. Four straight wins off a six-loss start is line-mover behaviour, the market's already caught up, so I took mine a while back rather than chasing. Their 488 points in 14 games says the attack never actually left, they were just leaking at the other end, and that looks patched.
My call: they land 3rd and go out in the semis. The form says playoffs, the ladder gap says they're not catching the top two. Kept it to a small stake in the weekend multi, value over a big price, and the bankroll is everything after last fortnight's lesson 💸
15 posts
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✓Six of their eight wins came in that four-match run plus early season, and 488-388 says they're outscoring the table, not just riding form. Top four for mine. Small sample though, those six losses weren't a mirage.
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Six of their eight wins came in that four-match run plus early season, and 488-388 says they're outscoring the table, not just riding form. Top four for mine. Small sample though, those six losses weren't a mirage.Six losses in 14 rounds is what kills me, mate, I've been burned before backing a hot run to cover for a soft start. I'd take the TAB five/six finish over top four at current prices, 488 points or not, that 388 against tells me the line knows something too. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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FixIsInPTSD calling top four again, that's a lottery ticket dressed as analysis mate 😂 same mob who tipped them top two last season, how'd the TAB treat that one? StandsGuy23's the only punter here reading the line right 🤡😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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StandsGuy23's got my nod, seen worse runs fizzle out. Back in my day at Lancaster Park they'd do the same, then finals arrived and the tank was empty. Fifth for mine 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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RobbedAgainMerchant out here defending the line like the TAB pays him a commission 😂 form reads LWWWW for a reason mate, that's four straight while everyone else was dropping derbies, and Christchurch in finals footy is never a free roll. I'll still take fifth/sixth, my NZ$ stays in my pocket. 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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fifth or sixth feels right to me too, i've watched enough christchurch sides pretend the table doesn't matter 😄 though i'd add a wrinkle: four on the trot going into finals is worth more now than it was back in my amateur days, fitness and rotation are a different animal. i'll keep my NZ$ light on them anyway, burnt once at eden park night, twice shy. 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Funny how everyone's happy to jump on the fifth/sixth bandwagon while the form guide literally reads LWWWW, hard out 😂 488 points in 14 games says this side can outscore anyone on their day. I just checked the TAB line out of curiosity and the market's clearly already priced the climb, so the value's gone. I'll quietly take a top-four finish and laugh at the fanboys if the tank empties like UnderdogNightmare reckons 🤡💸Show me your ROI first 😏
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Funny, I sat in the truck outside Timaru on Wednesday arvo going through the same maths as MatchdayTillIDie, four wins on the trot counts for a lot more now than it did in my day, no two ways about it. I'll lean fifth or sixth like the rest of yous, but watch as long as I have and you'll learn the Crusaders at 3rd after 14 rounds have a habit of making punters look silly. Not putting a cent on it either way, my NZ$ stays for the cold ones 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Six losses in 14 rounds and everyone's suddenly crowning them 😂 they dug that hole themselves, Christchurch don't get a pass just because the last four went their way. Semi-final exit for mine, and I'd love to see what ROI the top-four cheer squad is actually running 🤡💸
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i was at lancaster park the night the southerners scrapped for every inch, so i've got a soft spot for a christchurch side that keeps coming. But rob's got a point, six losses digs a hole no run of form fully fills. i'd say they make the four and lose the semi, maybe sneak further if the forwards hold up. form is real, but old school finals rugby punishes the softer edges. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Those six losses weren't all blowouts though, mate, points difference of exactly +100 keeps them right in the top-four race 😏 semi at best, sure thing.Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Metric_nerd's got it about right for mine. Back in the day we watched sides limp into the top four off worse form than this and nobody blinked, that 1998 lot barely trained in daylight and still turned up in the semis 😄 Six losses is ugly on paper, but a hundred points clear across fourteen rounds says they've been competitive in the ones they dropped, which counts for plenty come finals. My caveat, and I said it earlier in the season when everyone was writing them off: this tear came against nobody has actually tested their lineout yet. I'd take them to make the four, Josh's TAB call looks the safe NZ$ to me - but past that I'm with Rob more than I'd like to admit. Semi exit, and even that's if the draw falls kindly. Seen better Christchurch sides fall over at that exact step.
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Rob asking for ROI while calling a semi exit himself 😂 four straight wins in this comp is worth more than a pretty table, mate. I'll take the top four 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Locked in the top four at the TAB, small punt on the semis at the price. Form's real, bankroll is everything. See you after the round 🔥💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.