Waikato bounced back with 36:27 over Manawatu
That Manawatu win was a decent response but I want to see it twice before I trust them again - two blowout losses before that. Home at FMG helps, so I'll take Waikato but small: NZ$20 on the head-to-head at the TAB and a tenner on Waikato -6 in the same multi, Tasman don't travel badly. Got Waikato first try scorer pencilled in too if the price is worth it.
11 posts
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✓I keep a running sheet every round and the Waikato numbers make queasy reading. Nine days, two games, a swing from -22 against Canterbury to +9 against Manawatu. That's a 31-point margin swing in one week, which usually tells you more about the opponent than the team, Manawatu's defence has been generous all season. I could be wrong, but I'd want the Wellington trip on 27 September to settle things before touching the Tasman line at all. Agree with TrueFan4Life on the caution, and I'd add one nuance: Tasman travelling well is exactly why the -6 line exists, so backing Waikato straight up at small stakes is the saner half of that multi. My ledger says wait for Wellington; if they compete there, NZ$20 head-to-head on 3 October is fair value. If they get blown out again, the Hamilton crowd factor alone won't cover it. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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A -22 to +9 swing inside a fortnight screams to me the Manawatu game flattered them. Tasman away trips fine; I'd take Tasman +6 at the TAB over backing Waikato straight up 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Remind me of your ROI, Matchday_88? You tanked the Canterbury call too if I recall. Waikato at home, Mooloo crowd roaring, take the NZ$20 straight up and laugh later 😏It's a lottery, not sport.
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I'd side with TrueFan4Life here, one good game after two stinkers tells you very little. Seen it all before with the Mooloo, they can look world-beaters one week and lose the plot the next. That said, back in the day I learnt at Eden Park nights that home crowd counts for plenty in October when the ground's heavy and the visitors are travelling from the top of the south. I'll put a modest NZ$20 on Waikato at the TAB, but I wouldn't touch the line — nine days between matches with a swing that big, your guess is as good as mine. Young fellas keen on the -6 can have that one 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Everyone's acting like FMG Stadium is worth ten points itself 😂 In reality? Manawatu turning up half asleep probably flattered the Mooloo more than the crowd did. I'd still take them at home, but I'll watch the Wellington trip on the 27th before throwing NZ$ at the Tasman game - anyone actually done that? 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Ultra88 summed it up nicely, seen it all before with the Mooloo, mate. I'd only say Hamilton crowd does lift them. NZ$10 on Waikato, heart over head 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Honestly RobbedAgainMerchant might be onto something there, Manawatu's defence looked like they'd all had a big night out the way Waikato kept finding gaps out wide. Doesn't mean the Mooloo fixed anything from those Canterbury and Northland hidings. But I'll say this, the bounce-back was real enough that I'm mildly curious. Normally I'd be NZ$10 heart-over-head with FixIsInBeliever680 but my head says Tasman at FMG on 3 Oct is exactly the fixture where Waikato have let everyone down before. Going small on Waikato with a shrug, expecting to look like a 🤡 by halftime. What's everyone's line thinking, home win or do the doubters pile in? 😏Any stat can be bent.
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RobbedAgainMerchant has a point about Manawatu's tackling, I've seen worse sides get rolled here back in the day, but the 36 points still don't happen without something ticking up front. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it - after those two hidings to Canterbury and Northland, even a patchy response at FMG means more than nothing. I'll take Waikato by a few at home on 3 October, small TAB flutter only, heart over head like FixIsInBeliever680 says 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Watched that Manawatu game and the gaps out wide were still there for anyone with eyes, Tasman just happen to defend that channel a sight better. Both those hidings before it came away from home too, funnily enough. Take your NZ$10 heart bet, Fix, I'll wait for the fanboys to pile in first 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Went through the card this morning: Waikato head-to-head plus Waikato -4.5, chucked a tenner on it in my TAB multi, total NZ$15 on the match because those two hidings scare me too much for more. Wellington away first though. If they stumble there this pick is dead before the 3rd. See you after the match, we'll see who landed it 😭🔥Value over a big price 💸