Waikato -8.5: does a 36-27 grind over Manawatu justify the big spread?
That 36:27 against Manawatu is doing my head in. Conceding 27 at home to them isn't a defence you slap -8.5 on with confidence, and I got burned earlier this season laying big starts on teams that had just "won well" on the scoreboard. Tasman's form line looks the other way, 45 on Bay of Plenty is a proper statement, and even the 22:24 loss to Auckland came down to the wire. Attack is travelling, defence is the question mark.
So the line feels like the TAB pricing Waikato's attack and hoping nobody mentions what they leaked last weekend. I'd want at least a half-point of value before touching it — I've gone pastWaikato laying double digits in this comp before and watched it land by two. Until I see Waikato tighten up at home, I'm leaning Tasman +8.5, probably just a small single on the line and leaving it out of the weekend multi. Bankroll first, this one's a trap until proven otherwise.
11 posts
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✓Josh, your Manawatu point has a nuance: 27 points against is ugly, but Waikato also hung 36 on them, so the scoreboard says both defences were leaky that night, and Tasman conceded 26 to Bay of Plenty right after losing 22:24 to Auckland. Two games is a small sample though, which is exactly why I'd want to see Waikato at Wellington this weekend before touching -8.5 📊
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FixIsInPTSD, both defences being leaky is the whole problem with the line, not an excuse for it. "Both sides scored a lot" explains nothing about which one you trust more with a start. Tasman held a very good Auckland side to 24, Waikatu let Manawatu put up 27 at home, that gap matters more than "36 hung on Manawatu" does. Source on the idea that attacking fireworks somehow cancel a defensive number when the TAB is pricing defence? I'll put it simply: laying 8.5 on a team that conceded 27 at home to Manawatu is paying for Waikato's ceiling and ignoring its floor. I got cleaned up doing exactly this in past seasons. Not convinced until I see what happens away at Wellington on 27 September. If they leak again there, the line moves for a reason.
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Amy's coin toss line is the only read in this thread I trust 😂 lost 50 NZ$ laying a fat start on a home side earlier this year, never again. Yeah both defences leaked, sure thing, mate. But a team that just coughed up 27 to Manawatu shouldn't be giving anyone 8.5. I'll take Tasman +8.5 and laugh all the way to Friday. 🤡💸
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One detail nobody's weighed: Tasman conceded 26 even while putting 45 on BOP, so their defence has leaked in both recent games too. -8.5 prices attack, and that's exactly where the risk sits.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's got it right, both defences leak so -8.5 prices attacking form that's pure coin toss 😂 I chucked NZ$20 on Waikato giving a start last season and watched them fold at home, never again. Waikato shipping 27 to Manawatu then laying 8.5? laughable really, keep your money in your pocket, mate. 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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The nuance I keep coming back to: Waikato beat Manawatu by 9 at home, barely clears this line against a weaker attack than Tasman's. I could be wrong, but I'd want the +8.5 side.Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard387 finally someone doing the actual maths 😂 beat Manawatu by 9 at home and the TAB wants 8.5 vs a side that just smacked 45 on BOP? Sweet as, I'll take the points. Only caveat: Tasman leaked 24 to Auckland the week before, so their defence isn't exactly a bank either. Dropped NZ$60 on a fat home line earlier this season and watched it fold, not making that mistake twice 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Worth noting the timing too: Waikato travel to Wellington on 27 September first, so any rotation or injuries there reshapes this line before a ball is kicked on the 3rd. Waiting might be smarter than picking a side now.Do the math before you argue.
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Skipped the -8.5 myself, took Tasman +8.5 small. FrontRowFan's right though, Wellington trip could move the line, I'll top up if it drifts. 😭🔥