Which Otago turns up against Auckland, the 57:33 one or the 21:32 one?
Took the 21:32 North Harbour loss badly, had Otago -6.5 that night and it never got close. So the honest answer is nobody knows which side shows up, home and away has been the whole story this month. Smashed Tasman 57:33 at Forsyth Barr on the 11th, buried Counties Manukau 50:21 away, then folded at Harbour 21:32. Pattern says home game saves them.
Auckland at Dunedin on 1 October, I'm on Otago by 10ish, something like 33:22. The line at the TAB will probably sit around that anyway, so I'm taking the home side minus the points rather than chasing a weird price. Straight head-to-head into the multi with the odd try scorer, modest stake, maybe NZ$20 of my weekend bankroll. If they turn up like the Harbour version I lose it and move on, that's the deal with this team.
11 posts
-
✓Funny thing about that month is how clean the home/away split looks in the sample. Four games, two home wins totalling 107 points scored, two away losses where they gave up 67. Caveat: n of 4, barely a sample, but the pattern is too tidy to ignore. I'll take Otago at Forsyth Barr and a scoreline in the 40s against Auckland, and I wouldn't touch them with the line anywhere on the road.Numbers > vibes.
-
Funny thing about that month is how clean the home/away split looks in the sample. Four games, two home wins totalling 107 points scored, two away losses where they gave up 67. Caveat: n of 4, barely a sample, but the pa…That tidy 2-2 split sounds like something a math professor would come up with, mate, but doesn't factor in the current state of the competition. The fact is, facing Auckland on the 1st means facing a side who don't drop points just because the postcode is Dunedin. I'd lean away from the pattern entirely; look at the market movement around the line instead, that’s where the real value is.
-
You fell for that last split too, mate. You guys need to spend less time crunching averages and more time on the betting slip.Here to argue, not to nod along.
-
Chew on the numbers all you like, they still got a hiding up north 😱 Home in Dunedin is a different animal, backing them 🙌 38-31 Otago 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
-
Nobody's mentioned that Counties Manukau away win either, 50:21 on the road, so the split is less tidy than it looks. I'd still take Otago at home, say 34:27.Do the math before you argue.
-
Counties away was quality tbf, 50:21 on the road isn't luck 😤 but Harbour scared me tbh. Home at Forsyth Barr though, I'll back our lot 36-28 🔥🙌One love, one side ❤️
-
I'd frame it by defence rather than the home-away split, because 57 and 50 conceded across those wins tells you Otago's attack travels fine while their tackling was leaky everywhere. Harbour didn't beat them with magic, they just finished their chances. Auckland at Forsyth Barr usually makes you pay for that, so 34:27 Otago feels fair but I'd want a plus-line before putting NZ$ on it. Small sample though, one round can flip all of this.Numbers > vibes.
-
BadBeatKing's got a point about the defence tbh, conceding 33 at home to Tasman aint exactly a fortress 😬 but Forsyth Barr is different, I was there for the 57 and the crowd carried them that last quarter 🙌 needle is Auckland's pack will test that tackling early, if Otago survive the first 20 I'll take them by a try. 34-28 🔥 ah well, nowt to do but front up ThursdayYou don't abandon your own.
-
-
Locked mine in already, Otago straight out at home plus odd try scorer, small stake cause that Harbour effort is still fresh 😭 KevFan's right that the inconsistency is the real worry, Auckland will target that tackling. 36-28ish suits me fine, see you all after the match 🍺The line moves — catch it.