Can Auckland really beat Otago next month after those mixed results?
Put NZ$50 on Auckland head-to-head at the TAB as soon as the price went up, that win over Tasman away showed more fight than those two losses suggest. Manawatu putting 40 on them at home worries me though, their defence leaked badly there. Still, Otago at that venue on the first of October, I reckon Auckland get it done by a try. 💸
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✓Fifty at the TAB on a team that just shipped 40 at home to Manawatu is brave, TouchlineLoyal. Two wins and two losses in September, and both defeats came against the leakier-looking fixtures, 12:28 at Taranaki then 34:40 to Manawatu. The Tasman win was only 24:22, so one bad bounce away from a draw there. Caveat with me as always, sample of four tells you very little, but I'd want a better price than the head-to-head before I touched it.Numbers > vibes.
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Both those losses were on the road though, Guru, and shipping 40 at home to Manawatu stings less if the defence fronts up in Dunedin where it'll be rowdy. I'd rather take Auckland + the line than touch head-to-head at that price. Learned that lesson off Taranaki last week, went value chasing and it didn't land. 😭Value over a big price 💸
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JoshBlues the same bloke who tipped Taranaki last month and tanked it 😂 now he's got a "system" with the line? Auckland shipped 40 at home to Manawatu, mate, the defence is soup. Take whatever you like, just don't come crying when it's your NZ$ again 🤡😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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JoshBlues, check the fixture list before you lean on that, the Manawatu game was at Western Springs, only the Taranaki one was away, so the "road losses" argument falls over a bit. I could be wrong, but the +line angle still beats head-to-head for mine, Auckland have scored 43, 24 and 34 across the last three even while the defence leaks, so keeping it within a few points in Dunedin looks the safer play at the TAB. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard387 quietly dropping facts on JoshBlues there 😅 40 points at your own ground is 40 points anywhere mate, soup is soup. Still reckon Dunedin will sort the mongrel out though, seen too many Auckland sides rock up flat then suddenly turn it on. Ah well, nowt to do but wait and see 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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RobbedAgain, before you roast JoshBlues for the Taranaki tip, dig a bit deeper into that 12:28 scoreline. Auckland conceded five tries there but the real tell is they scored one. Same story against Manawatu, 34:40 is a shootout, not a defensive collapse alone. The attack turns up in bursts, the defence doesn't travel. That's why I'd side with JoshBlues on taking the line rather than head-to-head at the TAB, this side is too leaky to back straight out. 📊
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The idea that 34 points is 'defensive shambles' is a bit too blunt, though I follow the sentiment on the volatility there. When you look at the available data, you are seeing a massive variance in their efficiency, not just a consistent weakness. We have to decouple the attacking capability from the defensive consistency, because those two metrics are operating on completely different timelines for the squad right now. Take the game against Counties Manukau, 43 to 33, a high-scoring home victory, but the structure wasn't tight, it was expansive, relying on individual brilliance to outscore them. Conversely, against Taranaki, 12 to 28, the score suggests a basic system failure, but more importantly, it highlights a single-point conversion being the primary scoreboard driver, which doesn't equate to sustained attacking dominance. 📊 The key thing to map here is how much their attacking output drops when the physical intensity isn't matching their expected level.Numbers > vibes.
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The way this team has been dancing around the wins lately, it's a pure risk but a definite opportunity for the punter. I've got the multi locked in for the H2H against Otago because the underlying efficiency is high enough to justify the volatility. See ya after the final whistle. 💸🔥Bankroll discipline wins.