Waikato got smashed by Canterbury then thumped Manawatu
Which Mooloo side shows up? The one that beat Manawatu by 9, hopefully. Backing Waikato at home vs Tasman on 3 October, NZ$40 on the head-to-head plus a NZ$20 dabble over the try scorer market, home crowd at FMG Stadium should count for something after those two drubbings. Only live once, eh 💸🔥
16 posts
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✓Going against the room on this one, I could be wrong but NZ$40 straight on Waikato reads generous to me. Run the sample: three games, 67 points conceded against 67 scored, a net of zero, effectively. Both losses came by 22 margins (14:36 Canterbury, 17:34 Northland), and the Manawatu win was 36:27 at FMG Stadium. Strip the home crowd and that same side lost twice on the road in the fortnight prior, so form says volatile rather than fixed. There's a nuance here too: Wellington away on 27 September sits between now and Tasman, and I'd want to see how that travels before committing. If they compete in the capital, fine, home vs Tasman becomes live. If it's a third heavy defeat, you're backing a side that's conceded 30+ in two of three. My play: hold the stake, or split it, small on the head-to-head now, keep the rest for the line after the Wellington tape. Try scorer dabbles are a coin flip at the best of times; leave those alone this week. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Net zero over three games tells you nowt, mate. Form at FMG Stadium is what pays. I'm on Waikato minus the line, NZ$30, and Tasman's travel always worried me 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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FanaticZone, didn't you back them minus the line against Northland too? How'd that NZ$30 work out 😂 Waikato's a lottery, and in reality? I'm sitting this one out 🤡Here to argue, not to nod along.
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RobbedAgainMerchant has a point about the Northland line, but there's a nuance in how those three games split. Home and away are two different samples: both losses came with Waikato conceding 34+ on the road, while the one game at FMG Stadium they won by nine and kept Manawatu to 27. Small sample though, three matches can't settle anything, so I'd weight venue splits above the raw aggregate Chris ran. My read: the home iteration of this side is a different animal, and Tasman having to travel into Hamilton after a short turnaround suits Waikato's set piece. I'm on Waikato on the line, NZ$25 only, because honestly the ceiling on this team is low until the away defence proves it can tackle. Sitting out entirely feels overly cautious when the venue data leans one way. 📊
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All this sample-splitting and not one of yous has given the travelling mob a look-in 😤 I'm a Tasman man till I die, NZ$20 on us straight up at the TAB, Mooloo leaked 34+ in both those losses, and beating Manawatu at home aint exactly a measuring stick is it 🔥 See yous in Hamilton on the 3rd 💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Sam, judging this Waikato lot off one home win is like grading a student off a single assignment - trust me, I do that for a living. And before the venue split gets all the credit: Manawatu still put 27 up at FMG Stadium, so the defence leaks in Hamilton too. The difference was 36 on the other side of the ball, and Tasman will ask harder questions than Manawatu did. One thing nobody's touched: the 27th. Waikato go to Wellington before Tasman arrive in Hamilton on the 3rd, and that trip tells me more than the Manawatu game did. I keep a table every round 📊 and even I want that fourth data point, small sample though. My lean is Waikato at home, but I'm holding my NZ$25 at the TAB until after theNumbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing, Manawatu putting 27 up still means Mooloo won it by 9 🤷 both these sides leak points, so why's everyone acting like Tasman are shoe-ins?? NZ$20 on Waikato 🔥 ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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BadBeatKing's marking analogy is fair, but I keep coming back to the trend line rather than any single result: Waikato have conceded more in each of the three games so far, 36, then 34, then 27. While their scoring has crept up too, 14, 17, 36. That Manawatu jump is mostly home territory inflating things, and Manawatu leaking at the other end made the margin look healthier than the process was. I could be wrong, but a side conceding 30+ a game doesn't magically tighten up because the ground is the same. Tasman travelling after an early-season wait is the unknown, so I'm not touching the head-to-head at any short price. My lean: Waikato to keep it competitive but the total to clear a modest line, with a small NZ$25 interest rather than anything near SeenItAllFaithful's confidence. Wait for the Wellington trip on the 27th before deciding whether that defence is fixable. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan, conceding less each week might mean the defence is actually clicking, eh 🤷 scored 36 last time out, put NZ$20 on Mooloo at home, get in! 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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One thing nobody's touched on yet: the quality of the opposition behind those numbers. Canterbury and Northland both took Waikato apart early in the piece, while Manawatu are arguably the weakest of the three, so that 36:27 tells us less than people want it to. I could be wrong, but if the improvement is real, the Wellington trip on 27 September will show it before Tasman ever arrive - that away match is the actual filter, not the home win. Context matters here, and mine says home advantage at FMG Stadium is worth something in the NPC but rarely worth a leaky defence. I'd treat Waikato as live, not favourite: NZ$25 on the head-to-head only if the line comes back around even money, otherwise sit it out and watch the Wellington score first. My spreadsheet has Mooloo conceding 32+ per game on average, and against a Tasman side that doesn't need to be brilliant to punish that, the market pricing them as clear favours would be where I step aside. 📊
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NickDiehard has a point tbh, that 36 came against the leakiest side of the lot 😅 still throwing NZ$20 on Mooloo at FMG tho, home crowd, you just know 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I watched the two Saders-era sides at Lancaster Park in the amateur days, so I'll tell you what count for little: one wet afternoon against Manawatu. What I look for is how Mooloo's forwards scrum. That's the tide, and against Northland they were going backwards. I'll wait till the Wellington trip on the 27th tells me more before I put a cent on Tasman. 🙂Been here longer than some have followed.
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NickDiehard's read is fair, that Manawatu win flattered them a bit, and if the scrum goes backwards like it did up north, Tasman will smell it. I'm keeping it small anyway: NZ$30 head-to-head at bookmaker and that's it, no try scorer dabble until I see the line move. See you after the match, we'll know if it landed or didn't 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Took a NZ$25 multi on Waikato off the TAB last weekend because the Manawatu margin looked juicy, and honestly it landed but the lesson's the same as NickDiehard's point, I was paying for a price built off the softest side in that run. Even when it wins, that's not a read, that's luck dressed up. Fair point about the pack too. If the scrum's still shipping penalties like it did up north, no line is cheap enough. Watch whether the TAB moves the line against them midweek, if the sharp money doesn't like the forwards, it'll drift, and that tells you more than the scoreline did. I'll leave the odd try scorer alone until I see which way it goes 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Took a NZ$25 multi on Waikato off the TAB last weekend because the Manawatu margin looked juicy, and honestly it landed but the lesson's the same as NickDiehard's point, I was paying for a price built off the softest sid…@UpsetKingAndy that's the wisest thing anyone's said on here today mate, a win off a soft price still teaches you nothing 😄 back in the day my old man used to say a lucky quid costs you more than an honest loss, and he was right about most things. Watch how Mooloo's scrum goes this weekend before you trust that Manawatu score for anything.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.