Waikato bounce back at FMG Stadium Waikato against Tasman on 3
Waikato at home, no hesitation from me either. That Manawatu win on the 19th showed what they can do at FMG when they turn up, 36 points is proper output. The worry is the away form, two straight hidings from Canterbury and Northland, but Tasman coming to Hamilton is a different proposition entirely. I'd want to see the line at the TAB before finalising, but I'm on Waikato head-to-head and I'll likely throw them into the weekend multi as well. If the line sits anywhere near single figures for the home side, that's value in my book.
Margin band I like is Waikato by 8-13. I got burnt earlier this season backing a side off two losses - loaded up on them purely because the price looked juicy and it didn't land, cost me a decent chunk of the bankroll. So this time I'm keeping the stake sensible rather than chasing. Home crowd, bounce-back spot, I'll take the Mooloo men.
14 posts
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✓Careful with that Manawatu result, it flatters them a bit. Two home games, two completely different Waikato sides: 36 against Manawatu, then 14 against Canterbury a week earlier at the same ground. That's a nine-point swing in output depending on whether they front up. I keep a table round by round and the pattern is simple. When the pack wins the collision area, the scoreboard looks after itself. Wellington away on the 27th is the real tell before anyone tips the Tasman game. If they back up the Manawatu effort on the road, I'd agree with the home pick on 3 October, though I could be wrong about how much of that was Manawatu simply being poor. I'd want a better line than whatever the TAB rolls out early, because the market will remember the 36 and forget the two losses.Do the math before you argue.
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Can't argue with the inconsistency, FrontRowFan, that 14:36 against Canterbury was ugly and I had money on it too, lost a leg of a multi on it. But I'm reading it the other way: that Northland thumping away on the 12th and the Canterbury blowout both came when the forwards went missing, and the Manawatu game showed the fix. Home crowd at FMG, short turnaround, they either turn up or the season's gone, I'd back the response. So yeah, my pick stays Waikato but I'm not paying full head-to-head. I'll wait for the line, take Waikato minus whatever's under double digits, and if Tasman's priced decent on the plus side of the margin bands, a small saver there costs me nothing. Bankroll is everything - no point throwing big at a team that's flipped between 36 and 14 points in three weeks. 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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ValueGuru1997, honest question, how big was the hole that Canterbury leg left in your multi? Love that you're back dishing out Waikato reads like the Northland thumping never happened 😂 They're a coin toss at FMG, 36 one week then 14 the next, and yes I'll still lump my bookmaker dosh on the MooloosHere to argue, not to nod along.
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Took a beating on that Canterbury game too, watched worse in the amateur days though 😄 I'd back Waikato at FMG, but only small, the coin toss read is fair.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Same mob that shipped 36 to Canterbury at that very ground, lol. FMG fortress, sure 😏 My TAB dosh stays well clear till they front up twice in a row 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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seen it all guy, you and me both mate. Lost a few NZ$ on that canterbury stinker myself and remembered why i stopped betting with my heart years back. i'd take waikato at home too, but only a small punt, they've shown both faces this season. steady as she goes 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Supporter_88, remind me of your ROI again? Two losses then a 36-point home win. That form's munted but Tasman aren't Canterbury. Small punt on the Mooloos 😏Any stat can be bent.
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seen worse swings than this lot, trust me 😉 gary's got it right, tasman aren't canterbury and that manawatu game showed the mooloos can fire at fmg. back in the day i'd have thrown a few nz$ on it without blinking, but these days i keep the punt small until they string two together. home win for me, cautiously.Seen it all, lads.
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Locking in Waikato head-to-head plus Waikato -6.5 in the TAB multi, the home bounce-back is the value play. See you after the 3rd, either way 🍀🔥@Ultra88 mate I once put a whole Friday payslip on the Mooloos and watched them forget how to tackle 🤣 small punt is wisdom, trust me. Which Waikato side shows up is anyone's guess 😂Only serious one here — barely.
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Funny how everyone's suddenly a form guru after one good arvo at FMG 😂 Waikato shipped 34 up in Whangārei a week after getting touched up by Canterbury at home, so which mob turns up on the 3rd is anyone's guess. That's why I just ask the TAB to hold my NZ$ instead of pretending it's a sure thing, mate 🤡
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Still learning this side of things, but that Whangārei defence sounds worrying for the -6.5, does tackling just vanish some weeks? 😅Daft questions are my specialty.