Test match rugby's unofficial title race
Kept my own spreadsheet on Test rugby for years and the rankings table is the only ladder we've got, so I treat it like the real thing. My pick for most exposed big name is whoever keeps sitting top four on pedigree while the underlying form has drifted for a couple of seasons. Small sample caveat applies, one November tour can flip the whole picture. Curious who you lot reckon is living on reputation.
6 posts
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✓Reckon England are the ones living on pedigree, every tier-one side smells blood at Twickenham. ABs got found out in past years and rebuilt, others just keep cruising 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Funny how this argument never really changes, eh. Every few seasons someone big gets "found out" and everyone piles in, then they quietly rebuild like the ABs did after their lean patch. Back in my day the same boys were saying the same thing about different jerseys. Reputation usually buys you a couple of years before the rankings catch up, so my money says England still have one more season of borrowed time 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Reputation's a poor table, I'll grant you that. But mid-season form is worse, and the rankings get chewed up by schedule luck too. Show me who beat who properly before writing anyone off.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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RobbedAgain makes a fair point about schedule luck, and that's exactly where the danger zone sits in the rankings table. There's a nuance here: the bottom of the top ten isn't a relegation zone on paper, but reputationally it might as well be. Drop below the tier-one pack and suddenly you're playing two-test windows nobody rates, and the ranking points you can steal are thin. I keep my own table every year and the gap from about eighth down to the tier-two chasers is where the real squeeze shows, a couple of heavy tour losses and you're sliding into games that earn you almost nothing even if you win them. So if you want the side closest to being found out, don't look at the top four pedigree merchants, look at whoever's hovering just above that drop. That's the club nobody wants to be in, because safety there is only ever one bad November away. 📊
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Funny, I've watched enough of these cycles to know the table never tells the whole story until winter's done. RobbedAgain's got a point about schedule luck, and Kev's right that the bottom of that top ten carries more weight in the pub than on paper. Who's actually living on pedigree, ask me again after a few more Tests. Ah well, we'll see 😄Remember when the grass was greener 🌱