Test rugby has no table to hide behind
It's quite clear that trying to give a definitive reading of the Test Matches table is difficult when we don't even have the points awarded across the fixtures yet. I could be wrong, but based on the overall reputation of these sides, there is certainly massive variance in perceived ability between the top tier and the rest of the competition. We might need actual match logs before we can start quantifying a significant gap between the contenders.
9 posts
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✓No table to hide behind suits us fine tbh. All Blacks in a one-off decider, every day of the week 🔥💪 Reputation only gets you so far, we've earned it the hard way!Heart with the team, head on pause.
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No table to hide behind suits us fine tbh. All Blacks in a one-off decider, every day of the week 🔥💪 Reputation only gets you so far, we've earned it the hard way!Earned it how, exactly? Reputation's built over years against everyone, a one-off decider can go anywhere. Show me the numbers before you crown them.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Sam, I like your confidence mate but I've been watching Test rugby since before the young lot were born, and the decider question never gets a clean answer. Back in the day it was all about the tours, three Tests in a row, and whichever side took the series reckoned themselves the best. There was never a table then either, and nobody minded. Reputation counted for plenty because you built it over years, one match at Twickenham or Ellis Park couldn't undo it. That said, a one-off decider is a different animal. A game decided on the night by a bounce or a ref's whistle tells you less than people think. The real test was always the second and third time round, when they'd worked you out. So if someone put money on it at the TAB I'd still lean towards the side with the scars, the one that's lost big games and come back. Ah well, we'll see.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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The current lack of finalized fixtures makes calculating any danger zone within the standings impossible. You'd need the full results before we could assess the gap to safety.Do the math before you argue.
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Half the thread's arguing about standings that don't exist, which is exactly why I treat Tests like a market rather than a ladder. No table means the price is your form guide. On the TAB for a one-off decider the All Blacks would start favourites against anyone at home, shorter in Auckland or Wellington, and that line moves the moment team sheets drop. Reputation gets priced in whether Robbed likes it or not, that's literally what the odds are. My prediction? They win the decider more often than they lose it, that's what the market's always said and I'd put money on it staying true. But as a punter I'd want a margin, not a straight head-to-head, because one-off Tests sit inside 12 points too often to trust a short price. Sam's confidence lands more times than it doesn't 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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Reputation gets you respect, a one-off decider gets you nerves. Give me the ABs when it's winner takes all, you just know the jerseys mean something that day 🔥💪You don't abandon your own.
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SupporterFan's got it right, the price is the form guide when there's no ladder to lean on. But I'd add a caveat: in a one-off decider the market overrates reputation. Everyone remembers the ABs pedigree, the line firms, and you're taking short odds on a team that hasn't played knockout footy against the big three since ages ago. I got burned once stacking a multi with a favourite everyone reckoned was a lock, TAB paid sweet nothing for the risk I was carrying. RobbedAgainHater318 is half right too, one-off can go anywhere, but nerves cut both ways and NZ have historically handled winner-takes-all better than most. My money answer: if the price is fair I'll back the ABs in a decider, if they're priced like gods I'll sit it out. Been driving the cab between fares today so haven't checked whether the line's moved, will have a look tonight 🍺Value over a big price 💸
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Reputation's worth plenty until the whistle goes, I've seen it all before. No table in Tests means the shoes get judged every time you pull them on, and that suits me fine. Chloe's right that the punters overpay for the big names on decider day, though the ABs still get my backing when it's one shot for all the marbles. Ask me again after the next window, mind 😄Seen it all, lads.