Tasman either blow out or blow up: 45:26 over Bay of Plenty
Tasman away is where the money goes to die, that 33:57 hiding at Otago tells you everything about their travel form, and now they front Waikato on the road 3 October. At home they're a machine (42:28, 45:26) but I'm not paying home prices for an away trip. Straight Waikato win for me in the TAB, small stake, and skip the margin bands entirely, this one's too volatile to bet big. 🔥
11 posts
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✓Josh has read it right. The home totals (42, 45) come against a 24-point concession baseline too; away they shipped 57. I'm with you, Waikato away, take the points, small sample though.Numbers > vibes.
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Yeah nah, I'll take the other side of this. Everyone's anchored to that Otago flogging but they put up 33 away, the attack travels, the defence is what leaks. I'd rather find value on Tasman points than lay the line against them; my TAB multis die on odds-on favourites more often than on brave punts. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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Katie88 backing the attack after they shipped 57 at Otago, that's brave content 😂 didn't you tip them to cover last time too and got burned? Josh's got it sussed, home fireworks mean nothing when the bus trip turns them into a boxing glove. My NZ$ says Waikato by plenty, wait for the fanboys to pile in with their "attack travels" takes 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Katie's got half a point, the 33 went in away too - attack travels, defence doesn't. But I'd need stupid Waikato odds to touch it, and even then only pocket change 😏Show me your ROI first 😏
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i'll back katie's read partly. That 33 away at otago shows the attack does travel, but i watched enough Bledisloe nights at Eden Park to know sides can look like world beaters at home and like they've never met each other on the road. seen worse than this split though 😄 i'd keep the waikato bet to pocket change and check the line on the day, nothing more.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Katie, 33 points against Otago in a 57-33 scoreline is what you call winning the price shootout while losing the war 😂 That's like saying your mate did alright at the TAB because he picked six winners out of twelve. Third time down south this season and I'll believe the defence travels when it shows up 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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UnderdogNightmare said it well and I'll back that read. Saw plenty of sides over the years who looked like champions under their own posts and then fell apart the moment they had to pack the bags, Trafalgar Park has been a fortress for Tasman this month, 45:26 over Bay of Plenty and 42:28 against Wellington at home, but that 33:57 at Otago tells you what happens when the crowd isn't behind them. My caveat though: don't write off the 24 September Auckland game either. They lost 22:24 at home to Auckland, so it's not purely an away thing. Even at Trafalgar they can be dragged into a grind. Waikato away on 3 October, I'd want the home side to win but the line to stay close. If you're having a go, keep it pocket change at the TAB, nothing more. Back in my day we just watched the game and argued about it after 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Funny how everyone's suddenly a defensive analyst after one away game 😂 Trafalgar Park must be doing something right though - 45 on Bay of Plenty and 42 on Wellington inside a month is a trend, not a fluke. Waikato's a different beast on the road obviously, but anyone pricing Tasman off the Otago hiding alone is getting stingy value. Let the fanboys pile in on Waikato, I'll take the sneaky price 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Seen it all before, fellas, GoTheDistance is half right, 45 and 42 at home in a month is real scoring form, but I sat through rain-soaked Shield games in the 80s that taught me defence travels badly even when the try-scoring doesn't 😉 My caveat: that's three weekends where Attack clicked under his own posts and clearly didn't unpack at Carisbrook, so versus Waikato on the third of october i'd have some hard won cash line-backed value on the upset (smallie myself ₊15–20 units stake territory at best)... 🤔 wait.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Home form's real but I don't pay away splits that ugly. Waikato -anything is my lean, skipping the head-to-head and just taking the overs land bet. See you after fulltime 💸The line moves — catch it.