Taranaki vs McLean Park clash on 27 September, who takes the win?
Put a few NZ$ on Taranaki at the the sportsbook when the market opened and the line has barely moved, which tells me I'm not the only one seeing it. Two straight losses with 17 points scored away at Bay of Plenty is a slide, and McLean Park alone won't fix that - Hawke's Bay did beat Otago 35:24 at home earlier this month, but the defence since then has leaked 31 and 32. I'd take Taranaki straight and skip the odd try scorer, too risky for the multi this weekend.
12 posts
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✓Lucy's point about the line barely moving is worth chasing, because the sample here is genuinely split. Two steps: Hawke's Bay have scored 35, 24 and 17 across their last three, a clean downward slope, and both losses came against sides you'd expect them to compete with at home. I keep my own table round by round, and what jumps out is that the Otago win looks like the outlier on defence; since then they've leaked 31 and 32. That's six weeks of tape saying the slide is real. That said, McLean Park has to count for something, and I could be wrong, but I'd want Taranaki clear favourites rather than a short price before touching this. If the market is still sitting near pick-'em territory, the value question answers itself: back the away side, or better yet, leave it alone and wait for the Counties Manukau trip on 3 October, where Hawke's Bay's away record will tell us more than one home game can. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Lucy's point about the line barely moving is worth chasing, because the sample here is genuinely split. Two steps: Hawke's Bay have scored 35, 24 and 17 across their last three, a clean downward slope, and both losses ca…Chasing the downward slope is one way to read it, but I'd pump the brakes a bit. That Bay of Plenty trip was always a trap game on the road - 17 points away is ugly, sure, but the North Harbour loss at McLean Park was a one-score game they could've landed. That's not the same profile as getting pumped. I'm leaning home side plus whatever the line gives, small stakes, maybe NZ$20 in a multi leg rather than a straight outlay. Taranaki deservedly favourites after two losses on the bounce, and that's exactly where the value question sits, is the market priced the slide in fully, or over-correcting off one bad away trip? Had my fingers burned last month backing a team purely off their previous fortnight's form, and the bounce the other way cost me a decent payout. Home at McLean Park counts for something in this comp, I'll take the points and let the odd try scorer do the work. 🔥
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LOL Diehard "pump the brakes" - didn't you tip Hawke's Bay last round too? Remind me of your ROI? 17 points in Whakatāne, mate 😂 Taranaki it is.
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Rob got a laugh out of me 😂 but Diehard's got a point. Harbour was one score, eh. Still, that 17 in Whakatāne scared me. Backing the Magpies at McLean Park through thick and thin, nah I can't tip it. Ah well, nowt to do 🤷You don't abandon your own.
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Whoever checks kickoffs should note both losses cost the Magpies discipline matters more than attack, conceding 31 and 32 while leaking tries means Taranaki don't even need to be flashy at McLean Park. My lean: the defensive slide is the bigger flag than the dropping points total, so despite my heart saying home fortress, head says side with Taranaki here. Small sample though, three games, so keep any stake modest - I wouldn't put more than pocket change past maybe twenty NZ$. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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conceding 31 and 32, mate... that's the whole answer right there 😂 discipline leaks, Taranaki will feast. Magpies by heart, TAB by head? nah, I'm on the bay of plenty slide continuing tbhHeart with the team, head on pause.
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Fair question from Rob, and yes my tip last round was wrong - I could be wrong again, but 24 then 17 points scored tells me the attack dried up, not just the defence. Taranaki for mine.
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Two in a row and suddenly everyone's a Taranaki expert 😱 one of them was Harbour by a score at McLean Park ffs, that counts for something... attack dried up? 35 on Otago three weeks back says nah. I'll take the Magpies at home, chucked a few NZ$ on it 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Worth flipping the angle: Hawke's Bay conceded 63 across two losses, sure, but the Otago game showed the model works when the set piece holds. My sheet has their first-phase carry numbers dropping off a cliff after that week, and that's the actual variable here. Two-match samples are noisy things, so I'd want to see the teamsheet before trusting either side of the line. Lean Taranaki slightly, but the home bump at McLean Park is worth more than people are pricing.
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@FixIsInPTSD that carry numbers angle is the only part of this thread I'd actually put money on, if the set piece wobbles early the whole sheet goes out the window. Trouble is the TAB's already priced all this in and I'm not paying -7 on a coin flip. Small head-to-head for me, on and forgotten either way 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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FixIsInPTSD might be onto something with the set piece, but I'm not paying TAB prices to find out. Locked in a modest NZ$ multi: Taranaki head-to-head plus the Magpies under their points line, away form at Bay of Plenty did the convincing. 63 conceded in two weeks is the number that landed it for me. See you all after the 27th 💸Value over a big price 💸