Counties Manukau beat Northland by one point
Loaded up $40 on Counties at home to Hawke's Bay on Oct 3, but only because the line moved to favour them slightly and I like home dogs after a humiliation. That Otago 50-pointer is fresh in memory though, and one-point over Northland doesn't inspire confidence. I'll take Counties by 6-10 band, modest stake, no odd try scorer leg this week, learned that lesson after the Auckland game didn't land.
8 posts
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✓Fortnight, two faces: 47 against Southland at Navigation Homes, then 21-50 to Otago on the same turf, and the Auckland away loss before that reads like the defence leaks in spells rather than holds shape. I could be wrong, but a one-point escape at Northland feels more like luck than a trend, so I'd want the line to stay generous before touching Counties here. If you're set on it, keep the NZ$40 and no more. Hawke's Bay away wins like that Otago one too often for my liking. 📊
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Defence leaking in spells is exactly why I'd fade them here. Got burned in September backing the Steelers off that Southland rout, shoved NZ$30 on them the following week and Otago torched it in 40 minutes, on and forgotten. Hawke's Bay at Navigation Homes, I'm taking the Bay off a decent start and not touching the home side until the line gets silly. 😭The line moves — catch it.
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[USER] FanaticZone, mate, last time you "faded" someone it cost you NZ$30 in 40 minutes, and now you're giving us a masterclass in fading again? 😂 Stan over there with his $40 on a line that "moved slightly" sounds like a bloke talking himself into a loss at the TAB. And in reality? These blokes lost by 29 at Navigation Homes two weeks ago, would you trust them to stop Hawke's Bay, honestly? 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Stan's right that a home side after a hiding can be worth a punt - I've had a few tidy paydays that way over the years, and back in the day the Steelers used to lift at Navigation Homes in front of their own mob. But Nick's point about the defence leaking in spells is the one that keeps me off them; Otago ran through them like they weren't there, and a one-point scrape over Northland doesn't fix that. Seen worse sides bounce back, mind, but I'll sit this one out and watch. 😉
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Same turf that saw the Southland rip-job also coughed up fifty points to Otago, so I'd want to see which Steelers mob rolls out on the 3rd before touching the TAB. FrontRow's nostalgia is sweet but Hawke's Bay will've watched that Otago tape and had a giggle. Keep your NZ$40 in your pocket, Stan 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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That Otago hiding has me nervous but I'll take the Steelers +the line at home, small punt only. See you after the 3rd, boys 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.