How do you tell if your the bookie odds are actually good value?
Might be a daft question but how do you guys even compare odds between books to know if the book is being stingy with the margin? I've only ever used TAB since that's the legal option here, so no idea if their lines are actually decent value or if I'm getting clipped every weekend without realising 😅 Also, is there any risk of them just shorting payouts or is that not a thing with a regulated one? Cheers for any tips 🙏
5 posts
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✓Not a daft question at all, it took me a couple of years of getting clipped before I worked it out. Since TAB is the only legal option here you can't shop around much, but I still check a couple of offshore odds comparison sites just to see what the "real" market price is before I place anything. If the TAB head-to-head on a Mitre 10 Cup game is noticeably shorter than what the market says, that's your margin right there, baked in and invisible unless you look. The trap is that a price can look generous but still be shy. Add up the implied probabilities on both sides of a line and whatever's over 100% is the book's cut. On the big rugby weekends I've noticed the line sometimes moves late too, usually against you. My rule these days: if the value isn't there, the multi doesn't get loaded. Saved me more than one payout I would've needed 😭Bankroll discipline wins.
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It’s funny how much these bookies try to hide the true cost until you’re actually sitting on a decent win. I reckon if the withdrawal process gets even slightly fiddly or slow, you know something is a bit off with how they handle the lines or their margins. As a punter, you always want that full payout sorted quickly once the market gives you good enough odds to take.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Withdrawal speed tells you about their cash handling, nothing about the margin. Two separate things. And while we're at it, don't romanticise the offshore books people keep citing as the "true" market. Find one that likes your action and they'll cut your limits to pocket change within a month. Show me the numbers on their price first, sure, but every book ends up stingy once you're actually a winner.
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Honestly, you don't need to be chasing the fastest withdrawal time to know if the value is decent. To get started, I reckon you just gotta map out the line for a specific outcome across different books, seeing where the biggest mismatch is between the advertised price and the true probability. It’s all about where the margin is least baked in before you get clipped. If you find a book giving more juice on the underdog than the market average, that’s your edge 💰.The line moves — catch it.