Southland blowout of Bay of Plenty: does the head only hold at home?
I've kept my own table on this for years, and the sample we've got here is small but ugly in one specific direction. Home: 43:12 over Bay of Plenty at Rugby Park on 13 September, comfortable from about the half hour mark. Away: three trips, three defeats, 24:47 to Counties Manukau, then 19:55 to Taranaki, then 21:34 to Canterbury, each one a proper hiding. That's an aggregate of 64 points for and 136 against on the road across three weeks, against 43:12 at home the week before the Taranaki match. The swing is enormous and consistent, which is why I don't think it's one bad away day.
Could be travel, could be selections rotating for road games, could genuinely be the head, the mental edge holding at Rugby Park and evaporating on the bus. I'd hedge before calling it purely mental, because conceding 136 in three matches suggests structural issues as well. But the pattern is real.
5 posts
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✓Rain up south usually did the trick for the men from Invercargill. Home turf's a mistress, mate 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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History says nothing till they front up away from home imo 😤 Yeah nah, that 43:12 over Bay of Plenty was sweet but 47, 55 and 34 conceded on the road tells you the heads go walkabout the second they leave Invercargill. Form beats history every time tbh. Northland on 2 Oct will settle it.ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Lost a cheeky NZ$40 on Southland +12 away to Taranaki because I believed one good home win over Bay of Plenty meant something. Lesson banked. Three road trips, three hidings, 24:47, 19:55, 21:34. And the line barely moved in their favour any week, which tells you the TAB and everyone backing offside of it already knew this mob doesn't travel. So for Northland at Rugby Park on 2 October I'll take the home side but keep the stake modest, maybe NZ$20 into a multi rather than straight out. If Southland turn up with the same head they showed against Bay of Plenty they win by double digits; if they're flat anywhere near the whistle, Northland are good enough to make it four. Until they prove they can land a result on the road, their price at Invercargill is the only value on the board. 🔥
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Small sample, one home win against three road hidings, I could be wrong, but I'd wait for Northland at Rugby Park on 2 October before calling the heads fragile.Do the math before you argue.
