Hawke's Bay still deserve a top-five NPC talk, fight me
Righto, here's my top five as promised, and I'll defend it point by point.
1. Hawke's Bay. That 35:24 win over Otago at McLean Park on 4 September was the most complete performance of the round, and they followed it with two losses by a combined 22 points. Better record than the table suggests.
2. Bay of Plenty. Beating the Magpies 32:17 away in September is exactly the sort of result that earns a spot.
3. North Harbour. Went to Napier and won 31:24. Not many do that at McLean Park.
4. Otago. Lost in Napier, yes, but conceding 35 there happens to everyone this season.
5. Taranaki. Away trip to McLean Park on 27 September is their chance to prove me wrong, and I could be wrong about this whole order after that one.
Counties Manukau away on 3 October tells us if Hawke's Bay are genuinely top-five or just unlucky. Keep your lists coming. 📊
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✓Righto, here's my top five as promised, and I'll defend it point by point. 1. Hawke's Bay. That 35:24 win over Otago at McLean Park on 4 September was the most complete performance of the round, and they followed it wit…Nah FrontRowFan, #1 off the back of ONE good night? 😱 c'mon mate, heart says it all there but the head says otherwise 🤬 Love the Magpies, McLean Park on a windy arvo is a bloody fortress when they turn up. That 35:24 over Otago on 4 September was tidy, no argument from me. But since then?? Lost at HOME to North Harbour 24:31, then got benched by Bay of Plenty 17:32 away... seventeen points to THIRTY TWO. That's not a top-five side right now tbh, that's mid-table noise until they prove something 💪 Two heartbreakers in a row and you're handing them the crown? Nah. If they smack Taranaki at McLean Park on the 27th, THEN we're talking. Until then I've got them eighth, maybe seventh if I'm in a good mood 🙌 backing them all day but the list needs to earn its spot, not get gifted it. Fight me properly 🤜🔥
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Top five with no Wellington in it? Bold stuff 😂 Remind me of your ROI on predictions, FrontRowFan? One windy night at McLean Park and suddenly they're world beaters.
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Robbie, one windy night? I've watched McLean Park sort pretenders from the real lot since the amateur days. Give them Taranaki on the 27th before you write them off 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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Took the Magpies head-to-head against Otago at $2.10 and it landed nicely, so I've got a soft spot here, but I'll keep it honest. Two losses after that don't kill them for me. Harbour by seven at McLean Park is a coin flip most weekends, and Bay of Plenty away is a genuine trip. A combined 22 across both reads worse than it played. For punting value I'd have them more like fourth than top of the table, but the market's overcorrecting off those two results. Taranaki at home on the 27th is the whole story. If the line opens around them giving a few points I'll be on it early, because if they win that one the price on their next outing drops fast and you're left wishing you'd got on. The 3 October trip to Counties Manukau is no gimmie either, so top five talk might need both. I'd rather back them now while the doubters are still loud. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Hannah's got a point, one home win and two cough-ups hardly screams top five 😂 FirstFive15, that $2.10 was decent value though. Taranaki on the 27th sorts it, mate.Any stat can be bent.
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Watch the Harbour game again before anyone uses it against them. Two quick scores either side of halftime turned that one, and until then the Magpies had the better of the territory. That's a seven-point defeat on a night where the bounce went the other way, which reads very differently from a thrashing. So my list has them fifth, no higher, but comfortably there. The 35:24 over Otago shows the ceiling, the 17:32 at the Bay shows the floor, and a top-five side is allowed a floor like that on the road in September. Hannah, I'd also gently push back on the framing: Harbour away form flatters everyone, so a home coin flip against them isn't the indictment you think. Taranaki at McLean Park on the 27th is the real data point. Win that and the Counties Manukau trip on 3 October becomes a chance to bank momentum, not a rescue mission. I'll happily repost my table after both.Do the math before you argue.
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Fair point from TaurangaBro about the Harbour game, but territory only counts if you turn it into points, and 24 on your own patch is skinny. I've watched Magpies sides come down to McLean Park for decades and the good ones close out those seven-point heartbreakers at home. That Otago win was a beaut, no argument, but one good night in September doesn't buy you a top-five seat. Beat Taranaki on the 27th and I'll happily lift my eyebrow. Drop that one too and this thread's dead by October 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Backed them that Harbour night and the line still moved, territory like theirs usually lands. Beat Taranaki on the 27th and I'll load up again 🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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Reading the thread back, most of you land on Hawke's Bay somewhere between second and fourth, which feels about right. Forum consensus top: 1) Wellington, 2) Hawke's Bay, 3) Canterbury, with Otago and Bay of Plenty filling the tail. I could be wrong, but a win over Taranaki on the 27th locks that in; a home loss and I'm dropping them below the halfway line myself.