Hawke's Bay have dropped two straight
McLean Park's the only reason I'm not writing them off completely. That Otago win on 4 Sept had a bit of spark, then two weeks later they're dropping a home game to North Harbour by 7 and getting pumped by Bay of Plenty, that 17:32 scoreline was munted, no way around it. Home ground against Taranaki on the 27th is their get-out-of-jail card, crowd in Napier does drag them up a notch.
My call: Magpies by 4-8, but I wouldn't touch the head-to-head alone at whatever bookmaker is offering, the value's in the line if it sits under 6. Throwing NZ$20 on them -4 plus a cheeky odd try scorer in the same multi, that's my weekend sorted either way. The Counties trip on 3 October I'm not going near until I see how the Taranaki one lands.
12 posts
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✓Lucy's spot on about that BoP scoreline, 17:32 with a seven-point home loss to Harbour the week before is a worrying pattern, and I could be wrong, but the numbers say tread carefully. The Otago win (35:24) came off a shorter turnaround, whereas the two losses came at 15/6-day gaps, so fatigue alone doesn't explain it. My lean: back them at McLean Park against Taranaki on 27 September for a modest stake, but treat the Counties Manukau away trip on 3 October as a no-bet until the line tells us something. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Lucy's spot on about that BoP scoreline, 17:32 with a seven-point home loss to Harbour the week before is a worrying pattern, and I could be wrong, but the numbers say tread carefully. The Otago win (35:24) came off a sh…Hmm, treading carefully after two losses is fair, but I reckon the market's already overcorrected - Taranaki away at McLean Park on 27 Sept is where I'm backing them, and if the line lands inside 6 I'm putting NZ$30 into the multi with them head-to-head plus a Taranaki odd try scorer for value. The BoP trip was the outlier for mine, that Otago form doesn't vanish overnight. Didn't land last fortnight, doesn't mean the bankroll's dead - this is the week it pays or it's on and forgotten.Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Thirty bucks on a multi for a team shipping 32 points? 😂 ValueGuru mate, remind me of your ROI last time you "found value"? Taranaki by plenty at McLean Park, bank on it 🤡💸Show me your ROI first 😏
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Funny how the Otago win suddenly counts as "form" now that everyone needs a reason to back them 😏 that was three weeks ago and they've shipped 63 points since. I'd rather take Taranaki plus whatever the line is at McLean Park than touch the Magpies head-to-head. Three straight losses incoming, and in reality? ValueGuru's NZ$30 is a donation 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Watched a few Magpies sides slump worse than this and crawl off the canvas at McLean Park, so I'm with ValueGuru on the 27th, the Napier crowd counts for plenty when the wind's up off the Ahuriri side. That said, a multi with an odd try scorer is a mug's ride, I learned that lesson back in my day and it cost me a decent night out. If I were touching it, straight head-to-head home win only, small stake.Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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StatHead ripping on someone's NZ$30 multi while tipping "Taranaki by plenty". What's your stake then mate, or is confidence free at the TAB? 😏
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RobBeliever's got a point about confidence being free 😄 I'll side with MatchdayTillIDie on the Taranaki game though - back in my day McLean Park on a windy Saturday arvo sorted out plenty of fancied visiting sides. I'd still only put a modest NZ$20 or so on the Magpies, mind, because two straight losses tell you something, and that trip to Counties Manukau on 3 October looks scarier than the home one. Seen worse collapses turn around, but I wouldn't remortgage the house on it 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Love how RobbedAgain suddenly discovered defensive stats after slagging my Taranaki line call last season, sure thing mate 😏 for what it's worth the 17:32 was with the game already gone by the half, so I wouldn't read too much into the margin - put a lazy NZ$20 on the Magpies at the TAB for the 27th and I'll happily wear the wind factor at McLean Park.It's a lottery, not sport.
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My old man used to say a team's only as crook as its last half, and that 17:32 in Rotorua territory was ugly but AmyBlues is right that the game was gone by the break. Doesn't tell you much about their spine. I'll back them on the 27th against Taranaki, small play at the TAB, maybe NZ$20 of my own. Seen worse sides than this crawl off the canvas at McLean Park, though my caveat is the trip to Counties Manukau a week later — back-to-back away after that is where slumps do their real damage, wind or no wind. The young lot never saw a proper southerly blow through Napier on a Saturday arvo; watch as long as I have and you'll get what that crowd does to visiting teams 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Lost NZ$60 last time I backed a Magpies turnaround off one home win, so this week it's NZ$15 on the 27th only. See you after the match 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
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Dropped two straight and suddenly everyone's a punter 😂 McLean Park on the 27th, wind doing its thing, our lot will be sweet. Remember when we turned over the fancied side there in my playing days 🔥💪One love, one side ❤️