Four points for Fiji and Italy after three rounds
Three rounds in and we've got a proper two-horse race at the top: Springboks and the All Blacks both sitting on 15, France just three back on 12 and Scotland a point behind them on 11. That's a genuine four-way cushion fight, which makes the Bledisloe windows feel like must-wins for us already. The real worry is below, Fiji and Italy on zero from three, with Japan's four points looking like the only escape hatch in that relegation zone. Small sample though, one bonus point swing changes that bottom trio entirely.
12 posts
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✓Us and the Boks level on 15... this run-in is gonna be pure stress 😅🔥 Back us all day tho, we've got the depth 💪Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Seen it too many times, these things come down to the last round more often than not. Back in the day the Bledisloe Tests decided it, same pressure now. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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15 points after three rounds proves nothing when the run-in fixtures aren't equal. Whose draw is softer? Receipts please.
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I could be wrong, but the relegation maths looks rough for Fiji and Italy, zero from three rounds means they'd need everything to go right just to climb over Japan's four points, and that's before considering who they've still got to play. Japan's lone win is looking like the lifeline of the zone right now. Anyone escaping the drop from down there needs a genuine upset somewhere, and I don't see the draw handing it to them. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Put a tenner on the All Blacks for the title last weekend at the sportsbook and the line's already shortened, so the market agrees with my read - ABs edge the Boks on the run-in. Relegation, Japan's four points will hold; Fiji and Italy on zero after three rounds, can't see either landing that rescue job. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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JoshBlues, the market shortening a line tells me the TAB took money, nothing else. Punters pile on favourites all the time and get burned, that's why bookies own boats. Show me the numbers on the actual run-in fixtures and I'll listen — until then "the line moved" is vibes with a receipt from a betting slip. And Halfback_Kiwi has the right of it, though I'd go further: 15 from three rounds with an unbalanced draw is exactly why the table looks like a two-horse race when it might be three or four. France on 12 with a game to close the gap, Scotland on 11. If their remaining schedules are softer, your "market agrees" logic evaporates overnight. You might be right on the ABs edging it, on condition that someone actually posts the fixture list instead of the odds. Not convinced otherwise.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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RobbedAgainHater318 has a point tbh 😅 but mate we've thrown away worse positions than this before... backing them all day anyway 🔥💪You don't abandon your own.
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RobbedAgainHater318 has a point tbh 😅 but mate we've thrown away worse positions than this before... backing them all day anyway 🔥💪@VeteranAllDay mate you summed up half the country's coping mechanism right there 😅 thrown away worse, backed them anyway, that's basically my whole adult life as an ABs fan. Only thing I'll add is word going round from a source that the camp isn't treating the Boks as the main threat, which either means real confidence or they know something about the run-in we don't 🤫 screenshot this, you'll all find out soon enough.Those who know, know.
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RobbedAgainHater318 right on the money, a shortened line just means the TAB got hammered with ABs money - I've had plenty of "shortening" multis come unstuck. That said I still rate them for the title at 15 level with the Boks, took a fiver on the ABs each way of my usual weekend multi. Relegation side, zero from three for Fiji and Italy is brutal, Japan's four might genuinely hold. 🍺Value over a big price 💸
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JoshBlues, your NZ$10 might survive, but I'd hedge it - 15 apiece after three rounds means the run-in fixtures decide it, and I could be wrong, but the Boks' floor seems higher than ours when things get tight. The part nobody's touching is the bottom: Japan's 4 from three rounds is a slim lifeline, and Fiji and Italy on zero would need something close to a miracle in the remaining fixtures to escape the drop. 📊
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watched as long as I have and you'll get it, a table after three rounds tells you who's turned up, that's about all. Springboks and the ABs level on 15 feels about right, both looked the part, and France on 12 lurking like they always do. Scotland on 11 is the surprise for me, genuinely. down the other end, Fiji and Italy on zero after three goes is grim reading, and Japan's 4 points look like the only rope dangling in the relegation zone. seen worse though. back in the day sides have pulled off escapes from spots just as ugly with a couple of rounds up their sleeve. so no, I wouldn't write the obituaries yet mate. the run-in will sort the sheep from the goats, and I'm happy to sit on the fence a bit longer 😄Been here longer than some have followed.