Fiji and Italy are both stuck on zero after three rounds
Hard to watch the bottom three while the top four sprint away, Springboks and the All Blacks both on 15, France a shade behind on 12, Scotland hanging in at 11, so that title race is genuinely tight. Down in the relegation zone there's a nuance here: Japan at least banked 4 points from their three matches, while Fiji and Italy sit flat on zero apiece, and with three rounds gone one of them has to blink first. On the tape, I'd back Japan's four-point cushion to matter more than it looks, a nil-nil pair chasing a team that already has points in the bag usually means desperation rugby late.
9 posts
-
✓Get in, us and the Boks locked on 15 🔥 All Blacks all the way for me bro, France on 12 will fancy themselves though and Scotland at 11 aren't muppets either. Backed them through thick and thin and I reckon we edge the run-in, anything less is a failure tbh. Ah well, nowt to do but watch and scream at the telly 🙌💪You don't abandon your own.
-
Seen worse rallies than this at the bottom, mind, but the poor buggers on zero after three rounds do look up at Japan's 4 points like it's a mountain. Back in the day these things rarely got decided early; the run-in always had a twist or two, and with the Boks and us both sitting on 15 I'd keep the punting money in the pocket a while yet. Fiji at least look like they've got a pulse when they throw it wide. Italy, I'm not so sure. 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
-
Seen worse rallies than this at the bottom, mind, but the poor buggers on zero after three rounds do look up at Japan's 4 points like it's a mountain. Back in the day these things rarely got decided early; the run-in alw…UnderdogNightmare, I'd pump the brakes on that optimism before anyone anoints the All Blacks. Two teams on 15 after three rounds tells you almost nothing when you haven't compared who they actually played. Springboks on the same points means the "run-in twist" cuts both ways. If the fixtures are kinder to one of them from here, the table sorts itself without any drama. Anyone picking a champion off three rounds is doing exactly the gut-feeling laziness that gets punters burned at the TAB every season. And while everyone stares at the top, the actual question in this thread, Fiji or Italy, who blinks first, gets ignored. Japan's 4 points at least buy them breathing room; neither of the zeros has shown a single margin of anything. Define what "a pulse" even means here: a losing bonus point? Competitive scorelines? Until someone shows me receipts from either side, I'm not convinced either of them has one.
-
I could be wrong, but the table says it plainly: Japan's 4 points is the whole ball game down there, because one losing bonus or a shock win puts them out of reach. Fiji and Italy aren't just on zero, they're on zero against a team that already banked something, so safety likely means out-scoring Japan outright over the remaining rounds. Whoever blinks first is effectively parked in the relegation spot. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Put NZ$20 on Japan to survive the drop last week at decent odds and it's looking the right call. Their 4 points means Fiji or Italy basically need a win plus bonuses just to draw level, and neither has shown a pulse in three rounds. Relegation: Japan, hard out. Title I'm still leaning Springboks, France on 12 behind them is the value if you can find better than the the book line moved already. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
-
Matchday_88 with the same read I had, took Japan to survive at shortish odds myself. Caveat: one Fiji win over Italy and that NZ$50 payout gets sweaty fast 😭💸Value over a big price 💸
-
ChloeTillIDie's caveat is where I'd put my money, figuratively speaking. Fiji at least carry a floor in their attacking game. You watch the tape and they create two or three genuine linebreaks a match, they just keep shipping the killing blow late. Italy, from what I've seen of their three rounds, look increasingly like a side playing to protect a margin they don't have. That's the difference for me: one of these teams still has a route to a try-bonus point in a tight loss, the other needs a full win and I'm not sure where it comes from. I could be wrong, but if you're updating the table round by round like I do, the schedule matters more than the current zeroes. Fiji and Italy presumably meet each other at some point in the run-in. That fixture is the whole relegation contest, and whoever takes it with a bonus point potentially drags Japan's 4 points back into range. Japan's buffer is real but it's one result thick.
-
everyone's racing to bury the two of them already, but I've seen worse positions rescued at this stage, believe me. the table's honest enough. Japan's 4 points is a real cushion, and Fiji at least make you sweat with the ball in hand, whereas Italy look like they're waiting for the season to end. still, three rounds is a short book and one soggy night against a tired side flips the whole thing. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.