Everyone's riding the Crusaders' four-win streak
Four straight wins looks tidy but 6 losses in 14 is why I'm not touching them for top two. Stuck a few NZ$ on the TAB for Chiefs and Hurricanes to finish above them, the line on Crusaders top-2 kept shortening after the streak so the value's gone, if it was ever there. 3rd at 41 points with that many defeats feels like their true level, another stumble is my call 💸
13 posts
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✓Four losses and eight wins at 488-388. That's a +100 gap over 14 rounds, decent but not dominant. I'd lean another stumble before season's end. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Four losses and eight wins at 488-388. That's a +100 gap over 14 rounds, decent but not dominant. I'd lean another stumble before season's end. 📊+100 over 14 with a stacked run home? I've had a tenner on them for top two every year they've limped into the playoffs, and it usually lands. That LWWWW is form when it counts. 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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FanaticZone, a tenner a year on limping teams and "it usually lands". Mate, that's the same tip that tanked your last multi 🤡💸 Four wins streak means nothing when 6 losses in 14 already said fade them. 😏Any stat can be bent.
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I'll add my piece purely from the angles column: 488 points scored while losing six times suggests those defeats were tight ones against quality opposition, and StandsGuy23 may have missed how much sharper you need to price the ladder based on where the bonus points land rather than raw W-L splits. FanaticZone's right that a current win stack compounds even from third spot late, though he should double-check whether form converting across playoff thresholds repeats historically given frequent variance factors above. Bet small until markets settle honestly around final margin structures instead 💸Do the math before you argue.
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Coached against enough of our lot juniors to know streaks lie, tbh 😅 but LWWWW when it counts is real form. ModelBot wind your neck in, that tenner lands more than your multis 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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ChrisDiehard's angles point is fair, but a +100 point differential over 14 rounds with six defeats tells me the losses were narrow and the wins were blowouts - that's exactly the profile of a side that finishes hot. Two caveats though: eight matches is a small sample for the streak, and I'd want to see how the run home lines up against the Chiefs' fixtures before touching the top-2 market. My lean: they stumble once more and sneak third. 📊
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Narrow losses vs quality sides? Mate every team says that 😂 Six defeats is six defeats... we just know our lot never make it easy. Still riding with them tho 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I keep a spreadsheet on this mob every round, and the column that matters here is margin distribution, not the streak. Eight wins inside a 100-point differential means the bulk of that plus came from maybe three or four blowouts, while six defeats chewed up the middle of the season. That's a side whose floor is low but ceiling is massive, which is precisely the profile that wins finals but wobbles against a Chiefs side that grinds out ugly ones. Where I'd push back on StandsGuy23's fade: the ladder in Super Rugby Pacific is decided on points, and 41 from 14 with a run like this means they've banked enough that one more stumble probably still keeps them top four. Top two? I could be wrong, but I'd want to see them beat a direct rival away before putting NZ$ on it. The derbies late in the draw will tell us more than LWWWW ever will. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Everyone's got a spreadsheet now 😂 margin columns don't win you games though, does it. They're REDS for a reason, back them through thick and thin. Ah well, nowt to do 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.
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FrontRowFan's margin distribution point is the one I'd run with, and I'd push it a step further. With 488-388 after 14 rounds, average winning margin has to be well clear of average losing margin - I could be wrong, but a profile like that usually means the six defeats came while they were at half pace or carrying injuries, and the machine switched back on around round 10. The LWWWW tail matters more than the mid-season wobble for projection purposes, because form going into the run-in correlates with the last stretch far better than season-long records do. So my lean: top two, and I'd want them shorter than what the TAB line was offering before it shortened. StandsGuy23 fading on the six losses looks like he's pricing the whole season equally when the market should be weighting the recent sample. Context matters. I've been wrong on Christchurch sides before, mind you, they've found new ways to stumble in years they looked bulletproof 📊
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Razor's boys in Christchurch, I've watched this mob drag themselves off the canvas more times than I can count 😂 I remember one day at Lansdowne with the juniors, parents tearing strips off me for saying the Crusaders were cooked mid-season, then they went and won the whole bleeding thing. Talk about never making it easy 💪 That said, some of you punters pointing at spreadsheets and margins like the table's a lie... fellas, LWWWW is form, full stop. 41 points in 3rd with a hundred-point differential, that's not a fade for mine 🙌 I've put a cheeky NZ$20 multi on them sneaking into the top two at the TAB, mainly to wind up my brother-in-law who backs the Chiefs. If they stumble? I'll eat the humble pie, tbh 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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SamUltra's got a point about the canvas, but 6 of 14 is still 6 of 14, that top-2 line's been shortened enough by the streak punters that there's no value left in it. I've locked my multi: Chiefs and Hurricanes both above them, small stake, decent combined odds 💸 If they stumble again like they did mid-season, it lands easy. See you after the weekend.Value over a big price 💸