Everyone's backing Waikato at home vs Tasman on 3 October
That 36:27 over Manawatu papered over a lot, 17 points conceded to Northland and 36 to Canterbury before it, so I'm not eating the home price at bookmaker. I'd want Tasman plus the start, and Waikato win by 1-12 on the margin band if you need them in a multi. Kept my NZ$ stake small this week, the Mooloo form is a coin flip. 💸
12 posts
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✓SeenItAll, one slip in your read - Waikato scored 17 at Northland and copped 34, so the defensive sample is even uglier than you said: 36 and 34 conceded in back-to-back weeks before the Manawatu game. I could be wrong, but that 36:27 came against the side sitting below them on the table, so I'd also take the start with Tasman and only touch Waikato on a 1-12 margin band if the price suits.Do the math before you argue.
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Josh my brother, didn't you tank a multi on the same "home patch saves us" logic last month? 😂 That Manawatu win was a lottery ticket that cashed, and in reality? They let 34 past them at Northland. Keep your 5 NZ$ away from the TAB here, the Mooloo side that shows up might be the Canterbury version 🤡💸😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Timing matters here: Canterbury and Northland both ran them ragged early, but the Manawatu win shows the fix started. I'd still take Tasman with the start at the TAB. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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"Fix started" 😂 one decent half vs Manawatu and suddenly they're fixed? After 36 and 34 conceded? Mate I watched that Canterbury game, hard watch. Leave Tasman alone 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Funnily enough I keep a running sheet on these lads and the pattern that jumps out isn't defence at all, it's which Waikato pack arrives. In the two losses the forward platform was being shoved backwards by about the 25th minute, so the backs were playing on retreating ball, and everything unravels from there. Manawatu at home they actually secured their own ball, and suddenly 36 points looks normal. Context matters more than the raw conceded column here. I could be wrong, but I'd frame the 3 October line as a question about set-piece, not the home patch itself. FMG helps, sure, but if Tasman's forwards get front-foot ball like Canterbury did, the venue becomes a detail. My lean: Waikato to win but I'd rather take them with a modest start to cover than pay a full home price. Wellington away on 27 September should tell us plenty before anyone settles their stake. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan's sheet lines up with mine: in both losses Waikato lost the collision area early, and when the platform holds (Manawatu) the backs do the rest, so this feels more like pack variance than a form collapse. Caveat though. Three games is a tiny sample, I wouldn't hang a season on it. I'm still leaning Waikato minus the start at the TAB at home, purely because Tasman haven't shown me a pack that exploits a wobbly scrum. Wait for the Wellington away result on 27 September before staking anything real, that match tells us more than the Manawatu win does.
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Half of you sound like you only watched the scoreboard tbh 😂 Manawatu game the pack actually held and the backs looked sharp. Two bad afternoons in the scrum and suddenly everyone's torching the season? I've coached juniors long enough to know a forward pack turns quick. Backing them all day at home, ah well, nowt to do 🔥On the terraces since I was a kid.
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What jumps out of my own sheet is turnover: in both losses Waikato were bleeding possession in contact, so the pack was defending scrum after scrum, fatigue question as much as set-piece. I could be wrong, but if they've cleaned that up since the Manawatu game, the home price at bookmaker starts looking fair rather than generous. Two weeks between matches tells us nothing yet, though.
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Took me a while to make my mind up on this one, but I've landed. Same trap as last year when I put NZ$60 on a home side that had just been tonked twice and I talked myself into the bounce-back, didn't land, money on and forgotten within an hour 😭 So here's my split: small play on Waikato head-to-head at the the book because FMG Stadium is worth something and the Manawatu win showed the ceiling, but the real ticket is Tasman + the line in the multi with an odd first try scorer. If the pack gets bullied early like it did against Canterbury and Northland, that line saves me even in a home win. NickDiehard's turnover point is what sold me, bleeding ball in contact is a fatigue tell, and that's exactly when the underdog cover lands. Doubled my usual stake on the cover, halved it on the outright. Not touching the Wellington away game on 27 September, that's a coin flip and my bankroll says no.The line moves — catch it.