Crusaders sit 3rd on 41 points with four straight wins
Took the Crusaders head-to-head last weekend at the TAB and it landed, so I'm sticking with them - four straight wins says the top six losses were just a bad stretch, and 488 points scored means they can outrun anyone. Defence is my worry, 388 conceded is leaky, but in the playoffs I'd back them to grind. Value over a big price, they're my pick. 💸
8 posts
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✓488-388 is only +100 over 14 matches, Katie - that's roughly a seven-point margin a game, which is modest for a side sitting 3rd. The six early losses bother me more than the four straight wins reassure me; a +100 differential suggests tight games that could swing either way in the playoffs. I'd want the defence tested against a top-four side before backing them deep, small sample though.
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488-388 is only +100 over 14 matches, Katie - that's roughly a seven-point margin a game, which is modest for a side sitting 3rd. The six early losses bother me more than the four straight wins reassure me; a +100 differ…Fix, that +100 worries me less than you reckon. Playoff footy is tight anyway - you don't need a +200 differential to go deep, you just need to win the ugly ones by six or seven, and that margin per game suggests they're already doing exactly that. My counter is the canes or the Chiefs in the semis, whoever draws them. I had the Crusaders in a TAB multi two weeks back with the line, and the line's been tightening ever since, which tells me the market sees the same turn in form I do. Six early losses? That was a different outfit, mate. I'll say it plainly: 488 scored in 14 rounds is no accident. I got burned earlier this season backing against them after a loss. NZ$50 gone and on and forgotten, and I've learned the hard way that this side's floor is higher than their differential suggests. Defence holding in the playoffs? I'd say it holds enough to get them to the final. Bankroll says take them head-to-head now before the odds shorten any further. 🔥The line moves — catch it.
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Katie, remind me of your record on these early-season calls? Pretty sure you were backing them at the bookie round one and it went about as well as my old ute at warrant time 😂 FanaticZone, "win the ugly ones" is a cute slogan till a Chiefs side puts 40 on you in a semi, plus 100 differential gets found out quick when the refs stop being friendly. 🤡💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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FanaticZone has the right of it, and here's my angle: the last four weeks of a 14-round sample tell you more about a playoff team than rounds one to six, because rosters and patterns settle by then. That early run of losses came when they were still figuring things out, and the current form line is what the market should price. I could be wrong, but if the line on them drifts anywhere near value next weekend I'd be on it at the TAB. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Four straight wins against WHO though 🤔 that's what nobody's answering here. FrontRowFan I get the "recent form matters more" logic but four good weeks doesn't erase six losses worth of tape, eh. Playoffs expose sides quickly... And tbh if we're winning all these tight low-margin games, where'd those 449-ish runs even come from earlier 😅 we leaked in spells ALL year until lately. One semi vs Chiefs (whoever makes it) will show us quick whether the last month was a fix or a mirage. Not putting real money on em going deep till I see how they handle pressure sets without momentum carrying them 💪🔥 defo keeping any multi legs involving us short.Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Classic_Est has a point buried in there, and the numbers back her up more than she thinks - that 388 conceded across 14 rounds works out to roughly 28 a game, and playoff defence lives and dies on exactly that figure, not the flash 488. I could be wrong, but sides that give up under 30 a game historically grind out the ugly wins FanaticZone wants, whereas the six losses look like an early-season settling problem rather than a structural one. My table says back them on the line in the first final, small stake only. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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28 a game against is the number that decides my punts, so I'm on the Crusaders head-to-head plus the line this weekend, skipping try scorer. See you after the match 💸The line moves — catch it.