Crusaders riding a four-match streak from 3rd
They're peaking at the right time, that LWWWW run has been worth following. I'd say they scrape into the top two, the points difference of +100 says they're not just grinding out wins. Had them in my TAB multi last weekend as a straight head-to-head and it landed without stress; next round I'm taking them with the line if the book gives anything under double digits. 💸
12 posts
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✓Katie88, I'd temper that a touch. LWWWW is four straight wins, yes, but one stumble earlier in the sample and the arithmetic gets tight: 41 points from 14 games with six losses means their fate probably isn't fully in their own hands unless results elsewhere fall kindly. The +100 differential (488-388) does suggest the recent run is real form rather than grinding out scraps, which supports your read on quality. I could be wrong, but my working table has them as a lean top-two chance rather than a banker. How I'd play it at the sportsbook or the TAB: skip the outright top-two market and look for value in them winning individual matches during the run, since the streak is the stat doing the work here. Track the games-in-hand column each round; if the two sides above them keep winning, the 3rd-place scenario locks in and the odds on the outright will have been poor value all along. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Katie88, I'd temper that a touch. LWWWW is four straight wins, yes, but one stumble earlier in the sample and the arithmetic gets tight: 41 points from 14 games with six losses means their fate probably isn't fully in th…Chris, your own-hands point cuts both ways, six losses is why the top-two price is still juicy, and that's exactly where I'm poking my NZ$20. I've had them in a multi each of the last three weeks and the line barely moved for the latest one, which tells me the TAB hasn't fully priced the LWWWW run yet. I'll take Crusaders to land top two, but I'm keeping the stake lean because one more stumble and it's done. 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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Chloe, that "line barely moved" genius call. Weren't you bang on about them tanking a few weeks back too? 🤡 NZ$20 well spent then. 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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😂 GoThe, worry less about Chloe's tips and more about that +100 points diff, that's genuine dominance. Four straight wins says top two easy tbh 🏉🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Gary, that +100 flatters them a bit, 488-388 across 14 games is about 7 points a match of margin, which is solid without being "dominance". I keep my own table on this and the split I watch is points for versus points against per game; 34.9 scored with six losses tells me they win big but lose competitively, so top two depends more on the sides above them slipping than on the run itself. Small sample though, four games of form. I'd want better than whatever the TAB is offering before touching it. 📊
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😂 Fix, seven points a game margin "not dominance"? Come to Christchurch and tell the red and blacks that mate 🔥 Every tight win in that run counts the same on the ladder. Top two? nah, six losses says our lot never make it easy, I'm not putting a cent on it. Ah well, nowt to do 🏉One love, one side ❤️
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I could be wrong, but I reckon the six losses matter more than the four wins here, and nobody's really weighed them properly. A top-two spot usually needs you to bank points while the sides above you drop them - 41 from 14 leaves almost no margin for another slip. The LWWWW run tells me their floor has risen, sure, but one loss in the run-in and they're likely stuck at 3rd. Where I'd put a small NZ$ punt: the value is probably in them finishing top four comfortably rather than squeezing top two, since the bookies tend to overprice the romance of a hot streak. Gary's right that tight wins all count the same on the ladder, but tight wins also mean the line keeps pricing them as stronger than they are. I keep my table updated each round and the per-game margin Fix mentioned sits comfortably with my read. Solid, not dominant. Top two: lean no, with maybe a 60/40 split in my head.Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRow, six losses counted same as four wins too mate 😂 that LWWWW run is now Crusaders. Only a brave punter writes them off 🔥 no bet from me tho, hard out risky 💪One love, one side ❤️
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Katie's closer to the mark for me, the LWWWW stretch is what gets priced, and ladder position in late rounds depends on current form, not season totals. I'd still want value on the line before touching it though.Numbers > vibes.
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Loaded up on the top-two finish at the TAB, small stake only, LWWWW is worth backing but six losses keep the price honest. See you after the match 🔥💸Value over a big price 💸
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@Matchday_88 small stake is the right call there mate, top-two markets are where the TAB quietly mugs you. I've been burned on futures before, put NZ$50 on a side to finish top-two a couple seasons back, they needed one more result and didn't land it. On and forgotten, that one. For me the four wins are real but I'd rather take the line each week than tie my bankroll to the ladder. If the price on them making the two is short, there's no value in it even if they keep winning. Six losses is a lot of runway given back. Keen to see what the line does this weekend before I touch anything 🔸💸The line moves, catch it.