Crusaders on a winning streak but 3rd with six losses — form or table?
Trust the form here. LWWWW with nearly a hundred points of positive differential smells like a title run, six losses were early season rust. I've put NZ$20 on top two finish at the bookie, the line's been shortening all week which tells me other punters see the same thing. Got burned last year backing a hot streak that fizzled, so kept the stake small this time. 🔥
15 posts
-
✓Half-agree with you, StatHeadAnalyst, but your sample is the wrong way round. Four matches of form against a fourteen-round record of 8-6, I weight the bigger sample every time. The +100 differential (488-388) works out to roughly 7 points a game across the season, which is good but hardly dominant, and a team genuinely clocking a title run doesn't collect six losses in 14 rounds. I could be wrong, but streaks like LWWWW often come against the softer stretch of the draw. On your NZ$20 at the TAB for top two, the shortening line doesn't convince me on its own, momentum in the market can be a crowd chasing a story rather than sharp money. Context matters here: they need other results to go their way as well as their own, and 41 points from 14 matches is a solid base but leaves zero cushion. My lean is another slip, finish third or thereabouts. If I were putting money on it I'd want better value than a shortening line on the optimistic side. 📊Do the math before you argue.
-
Half-agree with you, StatHeadAnalyst, but your sample is the wrong way round. Four matches of form against a fourteen-round record of 8-6, I weight the bigger sample every time. The +100 differential (488-388) works out …Bigger sample cuts both ways though. Those six losses are already baked into 41 points, so the ladder says they need help. My read: the line at the TAB shortened for a reason, form's live, and Christchurch at home down the run is where my money sits. Took top two finish at NZ$20, but I hedged with a small multi on them missing out too. 😅Bankroll discipline wins.
-
FrontRowFan backing the table again? You tanked it last time too mate, did you actually put money on that or just talk 🤡 😏 I'd check your TAB slip before lecturing anyone about samples.
-
Point difference is the quiet bit everyone's ignoring. 488 for versus 388 against works out to roughly +7 per match over fourteen rounds, that's a side playing well beyond an 8-6 record, which usually means the six losses were closer than the ladder suggests. I could be wrong, but I'd back the form to hold and lean top two; FrontRowFan's bigger sample cuts the other way when the underlying margin is this lopsided. I've got a small TAB multi on it myself, mostly as a hedge.Do the math before you argue.
-
+7 a game and still only 3rd? that's not a title run, that's a side that smashes the battlers and folds when it matters 😱 remind me how the Tahs cooked us in that Christchurch night game a few seasons back, watched it live, still sour ah well, nowt to do. I'd take the table over four hot weeks tbh, put a lazy NZ$20 on the streak at the TAB if you feel lucky 🔥You don't abandon your own.
-
Think of it like a term's worth of test results: one bad week in March barely dents the report card if the May scores are climbing. The sequence matters more than the raw count. Those six losses for the Crusaders sit mostly in the early block, and the last four weeks show a side whose scoring rate has clearly lifted, that's the trend a punter should price, because the table only reports where you are, never the slope you're on. My quibble with the table-only crowd is that 41 points after 14 rounds tells you nothing about which version of this team turns up in the run-home, and current form is the better predictor of the next six weeks than a static ladder position. Small sample though, four matches of streak proves less than people feel it does. My lean: top two finish, but I'd want the price before staking any of my NZ$ on it. Check the TAB number first; if the market's already priced the streak, the value's gone.Numbers > vibes.
-
+7 a game sounds nice but smacking the battlers inflates that big time 🔥 put my TAB money on the streak, the six losses scream slip to me 😱One love, one side ❤️
-
Form and fixture difficulty matter more than raw differential — the Ws came when the table points mattered most. I lean top two, small sample though.
-
Form only counts when the run stops being generous fixtures... everyone's ducked the real question tbh 🤔 top two? nah, another slip incoming 😱One love, one side ❤️
-
I keep my own table round by round and the thing that jumps out at me is the six losses aren't all clustered early like StatHeadAnalyst suggests. Fourteen rounds in with six defeats means they've dropped roughly one in every two-plus matches across the whole season, and a title side usually cleans that up. The +100 differential over fourteen games works out to about seven a match, which is good but not the kind of number that screams runaway favourite - I could be wrong, but I'd want that differential closer to double digits per game before I Trusted a streak blind. Where I'll push back on both camps slightly: the streak tells you about their ceiling, the six losses tell you about their floor, and for a top-two finish you need the floor. My lean is they scrape into the top four but one more slip against a fellow contender and third is locked in.
-
NickDiehard's got a point tbh... six losses spread across the season isn't early rust, that's just who we are 🔥 everyone hyping LWWWW like the differential means anything when half those wins were pumpkins. I'm with FullbackNut, slip incoming, gonna cost me my TAB multi 🙌😱Heart with the team, head on pause.
-
Don't laugh, but doesn't a streak feel worth more when it comes right before the playoffs? Two losses mid-run would scare me, a flat L at the end wouldn't. Top two for me 🙌New here, soaking it up.
-
Sitting third with 41 points after 14 rounds, I can't justify short top-two odds on a side that's lost six already. My money: back them winning the next one, small stake, and leave the table alone, another slip feels live. Landed or didn't, see you after the match 💸🔥Value over a big price 💸
-
Josh has a point though, form into the playoffs always mattered more than a pretty table. Back in my day we watched sides limp through May then turn up in June looking like world beaters. Colin Meads reckoned you play the rugby in front of you, not the one on paper. Six losses is six losses mind, so I'm not calling them title favourites either. Ah well, we'll see 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.