Crusaders on a four-game tear
Put NZ$50 of the weekend bankroll on the Crusaders run through the TAB, done. Form line of LWWWW after that loss is exactly the pattern I like, a side that got hurt, fixed it and hasn't looked back since. 488 points from 14 matches with only 388 against, third on 41 points, that's a machine in Christchurch gear.
At the bookie their playoff price is short enough now, so I've gone head-to-head plus the line on the remaining home fixtures instead of the outrights, better ROI per bet. Odd try scorer leg in the multi too, small stakes. Missed a payout last week by one leg, lesson learned: don't stack four legs when two land it. They're primed, I'm on and forgotten. 💸
13 posts
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✓TouchlineUltra, I'm with you on the direction but keep the sample caveat in mind, four wins tells you more than the 488-388 does, honestly. Third on 41 points after 14 rounds with that W8-L6 base means the playoff spot is theirs to lose, and the LWWWW run since the loss is the bit I'd hang an NZ$50 punt on. One nuance though: the differential isn't elite, so check the TAB line before you stack anything into a multi.
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Four straight wins is lovely but that 6-loss base has me spooked, FixIsInPTSD is right on the sample. I'd rather take the line in a single match than load a playoff multi on them, done that dance before and watched a 41-point side fall over in week one. 💸 Bankroll is everything, keep the stake small if you must back them.Value over a big price 💸
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Matchday_88, remind me of your record on these again? Because I distinctly remember you tipping against them last stretch too and watching it burn 😂 sudden respect for the sample size when the TAB's already taken your NZ$50, classic. Crusaders on a four-game tear, third on 41 points, and the whole thread's crawling with caution like that makes you clever. Put it on the line or admit you just like typing 🤡💸😏Any stat can be bent.
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seen worse setups than this and backed worse, but Matchday_88 has a point about that six-loss base. i'd take the single match line myself, multis have burnt me since the amateur days 😉
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Funny how everyone suddenly remembers the six losses once the TAB's already holding their cash 😏 Matchday_88, sure thing mate, you watched a 41-point side fall over in week one, and yet here we all are still checking the table every Sunday arvo. For what it's worth I was at the ground for one of those wins after the loss and the difference is obvious live: that defence has tightened right up compared to earlier in the season when they were leaking. 488 points tells you the attack was never the issue, the W8-L6 base is just the leftover scar tissue from the rough patch. Scaffolding's paid this week so a cheeky NZ$20 on the playoff run at whatever line the TAB's offering isn't going to hurt me either way 🤡💸 Question though, FrontRow88, if multis have burnt you since the amateur days, what's your actual play here, single match line or just sitting out entirely?Any stat can be bent.
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Back in the day you'd back your gut and a tenner at the pub, now we're all spreadsheet warriors 😄 I'll agree with FrontRow88 - single match line for me too, multis and that six-loss base don't mix. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it: form in May means sweet nothing once the playoffs start crunching bodies.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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488 scored against 388 conceded — plenty of fireworks, not much defending 😏 I'll happily watch you lot fund the TAB's Monday staff meeting.It's a lottery, not sport.
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seen worse sides limp into the playoffs than a LWWWW run, i'll say that much 😄 i'm with the single line lads though. Back in my day a multi was two mates arguing at the pub, and it still cost you your beer money. that 388 conceded niggles me a bit, so i'll take them game by game rather than putting the whole NZ$50 on the ride.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Model_Head's got a point buried under the smug, 388 conceded in 14 games and you lot are queuing at the TAB 🤡 Steel that defence first, then we'll chat playoffs 😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Whinge about the 388 conceded all you like, lads, three straight wins on the board is worth more than your Defensive Player of the Year vote 😂 Laughable really, seeing everyone suddenly punters once the run's already started 🤡
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Locked mine in last night before the line moves any further — head-to-head plus them covering in the weekend leg, threw a first tryscorer on top for a laugh. That's my rule with runs like this: get on while the price still respects the six losses, because if they bash another mob this week the market will sharpen fast and you're taking crumbs. Fullback's right that three straight wins buys you patience, Robbed's right that 388 against gets found out in a knockout game - both can land, which is why I'm keeping the stakes sane, maybe NZ$40 across the couple lines total. Whether it lands or doesn't, see you all after fulltime 🔥💸Bankroll discipline wins.