Who's in for a late-season Highlanders surge out of Dunedin?
FINALLY some Saturday footy worth getting up for π€π₯
Nah listen, 9th on 24 points is rough I know, but that last win showed me something. Form's LLWLW, so if that W sparks a run the boys from Dunedin can absolutely flip this script. Seen it before, remember that comeback down at theHouse of Pain years back, whole stand went mental, still gives me chills tbh πͺ Through thick and thin with the Landers, always have. They put 327 points on the board this season, defence is the worry at 424 conceded, but momentum does funny things eh.
Who else is in? Get in if you're backing the surge π ah well, nowt to do but believe
8 posts
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βNah, don't get too hyped about Dunedin. They'll fizzle out before the end, tbh. π€·ββοΈOne love, one side β€οΈ
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Five wins from fourteen, nine losses, and a points diff sitting at minus 97. That's the cold bit of paper and it doesn't scream surge, whatever TrueFan says or doesn't. But the LLWLW finish with that last W, that's the bit I keep flipping back to. One win doesn't pay the mortgage though, I've had plenty of Saturdays where a feel-good result did nothing for the multi. Value-wise I'd want to see the line first. If they're getting points at home against anyone above them on the table, I'll nibble, because the market usually prices Dunedin on the 5-9 record and not on the scrap they showed last week. Their defence has leaked 424 though, so I'm not touching any short head-to-head. Odd try scorer on their outside backs is the fun leg if the price is silly. Two $10 legs for me, on and forgotten, and if the surge is real I'll look smart for once ππΈUp one week, down the next. Classic.
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Me watching the Highlanders form guide try to tell a story: LLWLW is less a run of form and more my wifi during a power cut π€£ But nah, if that last W means anything I'll happily eat my words with a pint in hand. Π‘alculate me cautiously hopeful lol πΏMemes are analysis too.
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Minus 97 after 14 games, that's the part everyone's ignoring while they dribble on about the LLWLW π One decent win and suddenly the fanboys smell finals. I've sunk enough NZ$ on the TAB this season to know a dead cat bounce when I see one. Laughable really π€‘Any stat can be bent.
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Been watching footy since before there was such a thing as a form guide on a phone, and I'll tell you what I know about those LLWLW runs... they mean something, just not much on their own. Andy, your TAB money's yours to lose mate, but minus 97 doesn't scare me off entirely. Back in the day the Dunedin boys turned a hopeless mid-season into a respectable finish more than once, usually off the back of the derby wins where nobody gave them a sniff. That last W looked a bit like that to me. My caveat though, and it's a big one: five wins from fourteen means the surge has to start now, not in three weeks when the maths is done. Cautiously hopeful myself, LockNut, pour us both one πSeen it all, lads.
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it feels like walking up a slippery track after a rainstorm, thatβs where you get, you know, a moment of hesitation before you commit to the next step. everyone's looking hard at those nine losses and the twenty-four points, and i hear a fair bit of cynicism about the whole thing. but seeing them manage that win after all that wobble suggests they've got something left in the tank that goes beyond the leaderboard. i remember matches where the numbers were terrible until the final quarter, when the whole bunch just dug deep, pulling something out of nowhere. the road from the north up to Dunedin has given them plenty of tough scrap, so that consistency they're missing... well, it's been around before. it's easy for the punters and the math nerds to paint a picture of decline based on the last fourteen rounds, especially when those goals conceded are piling up like wet newspapers.Seen it all, lads.