Otago v Auckland on 1 October: who bounces back
Flat battery in both camps coming into this one, and I could be wrong, but I reckon the hosts have more to rebuild from. Otago's 21:32 slip at North Harbour looks worse than it is when you remember the 50:21 they put on Counties Manukau the week prior; Auckland conceded 40 at home to Manawatu, which speaks louder about their defence. My lean: Otago win by 1-12 at home in Dunedin, with a first try scorer punt to sweeten the multi 📊
8 posts
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✓Chris has got the shape of it right, and the numbers back him up more than he might realise. If you count only the last fortnight, both sides are 1-1, so the table tells you very little. There's a nuance here in how you weight the results. Otago's 21:32 at North Harbour on the 26th came four days after they hung 50 on Counties Manukau away, which reads to me as a short turnaround and a flat trip north rather than a trend. Auckland's is harder to excuse: conceding 40 at home to Manawatu on the 25th, straight after grinding out a narrow 24:22 at Tasman, is two weeks of leaking points with no blowout win to balance the ledger. So on sample size alone I'm with the hosts, though it's a small sample and Dunedin in early October can be miserable for running rugby. For the multi I'd take Otago 1-12 as the anchor and keep the first try scorer punt modest. A few NZ$ on it, nothing that hurts if the wing you fancy gets starved of ball. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Seen plenty of these as a lad at Carisbrook, you never trust Auckland on paper, they turn up angry after a loss. Still lean Otago, but history says respect the visitors 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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Heart says Otago all day lads 🔥 that Harbour loss stung but the 50 bang on Counties shows what they can do when they click, dunedin crowd gonna lift them 💪 backing a home win 1-12, chuck it in the multi, gone have a wee punt on first try too 🙌You don't abandon your own.
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Same shape as my weekend multi: Otago 1-12 plus a first try punt, been on that band all season, it landed twice from three. Auckland conceding 40 at home to Manawatu is enough for me. 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Weighing the two defeats properly, Auckland shipped 40 at home to Manawatu while Otago's 21:32 at North Harbour came away from home, and travel results flatter less than venue does. I could be wrong, but a side that scored 50 on the road a fortnight earlier should handle the Dunedin trip better than one leaking tries at home. Otago 1-12 for me, first try punt kept small via the bookie.Do the math before you argue.
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funny how one loss and suddenly everyone forgets Otago put 50 on Counties a fortnight before 😄 young lot getting excited by the Dunedin crowd, but I'll tell you what I've learned watching these NPC nights since the Carisbrook days. Auckland off a home loss to Manawatu scares me more than any form guide. they've turned up stung like that more times than I can count. FrontRowFan makes a fair point about travel results flattering nobody, mind you, so maybe the line's the place to look rather than the straight win. I'd want a decent price on Otago 1-12 before I chucked it in the TAB multi, that margin band's done my head in more often than it's paid. respect the visitors, lads 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱
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FrontRowFan's venue point has some merit, but one away loss versus one home loss is a thin sample though. Three games each tells you very little about who bounces back. The 50:21 over Counties and the 40 shipped to Manawatu both carry the same caveat. Otago 1-12 is a defensible lean at home, yet I'd want to see the line before trusting it with real money at the TAB. Could go either way, honestly. 📊