Hurricanes sit top with 11 wins
Took the Hurricanes to win the comp weeks back, but no way I'm tipping them to run the table clean. Got 3 losses on the card already at 14 rounds, value's nowhere near the head-to-head now, so I'm going Crusaders on the line next time these two meet, small stake, covered it in my multi anyway 💸
10 posts
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✓The base rate backs your caution: three losses in 14 rounds means roughly a one-in-five chance of dropping any given match, so a clean run home was always a longshot. I could be wrong, but with 562 points scored against 298 the Wellington side have earned that 55-point lead, and I'd want better than even money before tipping anyone to take points off them this week 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Three losses says 21% per game, sure, but that Travel Day maths ignores away trips to Christchurch, where injuries bite harder than percentages 🍺 Backing Brumbies +9 at home instead. One in five lands somewhere 🔥Value over a big price 💸
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ChrisDiehard387 doing base rates again 😂 mate you tipped the Canes to go unbeaten in round 3 and tanked that one too, in reality? nobody on here actually puts money where the maths goes. I'll take the field against them any away day - three losses already, so who's the brave punter actually naming the trip they drop? 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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RobbedAgain laughing at maths from a bloke who's never landed a multi in his life 😂 the 21% thing is fair enough but canes dropped three already and still sit top, that's the scary bit, they win even when ordinary 🌀胆 nah I'm with Matchday, somewhere on the road it comes undone, ah well, nowt to doOne love, one side ❤️
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562 points for tells you their attack papers over the off days. I'd back the defence stat instead. Sides conceding under 300 in 14 rarely fade all at once. I could be wrong, but Canes run the table. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan mate 298 against in 14 games and you're tipping a clean run?? our lot never make it easy 😅 one bad trip to Christchurch and that table talk goes up in smoke, who's brave enough tbh? not me putting my TAB money on it 🌀
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FrontRowFan, the for-against split backs you up more than you'd think: 562-298 over 14 rounds is a plus-264 gap, and sides with that differential at this stage usually finish top two, table top. Caveat though, three losses in the WWWLW pattern says the off weeks land on the road, so a clean run still needs a fair wind. My tip: they drop one more somewhere, but the comp is theirs either way. Sample of 14, one game swings everything, as always 📊
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plus-264 means nuthin when the derbies roll round tbh 😅 canes look beatable every second week, I've seen it live. gonna back someone to jag them, ah well, nowt to do 🌀On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Been burned chasing exactly this before, took the Chiefs to go unbeaten a few seasons back, one away slip killed a NZ$150 multi, lesson paid for twice. So no clean-run tip from me either. Sticking small and sharp: opposed the Canes in whichever derby lands next where the line tightens past double digits, taken whoever that opponent is +points on the spread through the the sportsbook app. Their 3 losses already tell you the road trips bite even at full strength. Also chucked the odd-margin band 7-and-under as a leg. Aggression stays justified until math says otherwise, land or learn eh. See y'all after the weekend. 🔥💸