Three straight losses, 137 points conceded
Fancying them after 137 points shipped in three weeks? Normally I'd say you're tipping with your heart, but there's something in it. Everyone saw 19:66 at Canterbury and 28:52 to Northland and now the TAB price on Wellington at home to Waikato on 27 September will be fat, that's usually when the value sits, not when the crowd's already piled in. Hnry Stadium helps, Waikato aren't world beaters, and the line will likely drift wide enough that even a scrappy Wellington keeps it inside the margin. I'm on them at home, modest stake, maybe NZ$30 of the weekend bankroll rather than a full unit.
Taranaki away on 4 October is a different animal, third straight road trip after Tasman and Canterbury, travel legs shot, so I'd stay off that one entirely or look at the total points instead. My call: Wellington win at home, Taranaki to cover comfortably away. If that first leg lands I'll think about adding the second to a multi; if it doesn't, gone and forgotten. 💸
8 posts
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✓Sorry, can't back it - 28:52 at home to Northland, not even away. My tenner goes Waikato -7 instead. Save the contrarian coin for Taranaki away on 4 October. 😭Bankroll discipline wins.
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Agree with the contrarian read, Lucy - I keep my own round-by-round table and Wellington's defensive numbers are ugly (19:66 at Canterbury, 28:52 to Northland), but 137 conceded in three weeks tends to get overpriced by the market rather than the side itself. Home at Hnry Stadium on 27 September against Waikato is where I'd take them; the 4 October trip to Taranaki I'd leave alone. I could be wrong, but that's where my stake sits. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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SeenItAll, didn't you tip Waikato last round too and watch it fall over? 😂 Your tenner on the -7 is safe with me, more TAB margin for the rest of us. I'll take the fat home price on Wellington 27 September and think about Taranaki later. What's your record sitting at this season, three from nine? 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Both sides are tipping with emotion here, honestly. My sheet says Wellington's only played away teams since round one, first genuine home fixture gets my lean, value or no value.Do the math before you argue.
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Fear and scorelines are cheap 🤬 every punter reckons they can read form off two hidings. I was at a club semi where we shipped 50 and won the next week. Wellington at home, small punt, ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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FrontRowFan's sheet detail is the angle I'd chase too, but my own table adds another wrinkle: all three of Wellington's hidings came on the road or in that odd home tag against Northland, and conceding 137 across three weeks tells you about defensive shape, nothing about how a side travels back to a genuine home crowd. Small sample though, four data points is nowhere near enough to price this confidently, so I'd keep the stake modest either way.
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Locked in a wee punt on Wellington 27 September at Hnry, home price is too fat to pass. Taranaki away I'll leave till I see the line. See you after the match 💸The line moves — catch it.