Two slumping sides, one desperate Friday in Invercargill
Two teams trending in opposite directions despite both losing last week, and that's the nuance worth noting here. Southland's slide looks genuinely ugly: 19 points in a loss to Taranaki is one thing, but 21 against Canterbury a week later suggests the defence hasn't tightened between outings. Northland are harder to read, that 52-28 hammering of Wellington was real, but a home loss to Counties Manukau straight after makes you wonder which version turns up. The Wellington result came away too, so it wasn't purely a home-ground artifact, small sample though these last few rounds are.
On my table I've got them close enough that home advantage at Rugby Park probably tips it, but I wouldn't trust either side's form line much beyond two or three weeks of data. If you're having a punt, the line tells you what the market thinks, and I'd be more interested in whether Southland's defence has been working on anything since Taranaki put 55 on them.
9 posts
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✓I could be wrong, but the 19-55 at Taranaki worries me more — a side that concedes 50+ rarely fixes it in a week. Taniwha by a try.Do the math before you argue.
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Seeing all these young fellas talking about form tables and lines makes an old truckie chuckle a bit 😄 back in my day Southland-Northland was one of those trips you marked on the calendar - youd drive down to Invercargill, sit in that bitter southerly at Rugby Park, and the Stags would front up no matter what the table said. And the Taniwha have always had that split personality, its in their bones. Ask anyone who watched them over the years: one week theyll rock up and put 50 on someone fancy, next week theyll lose to a side they should beat comfortably. That Wellington game wasnt a fluke exactly, but neither was the Counties Manukau stumble at home. That's just Northland being Northland. So my recall says treat this one with suspicion, especially as a punter. Southland conceding 55 to Taranaki is grim, no arguing that, but theyre at home now and Ranfurly-era history aside, this fixture has always had a bit of spite in it regardless of where both sides sit.Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Stags at home in the southerly, theyll front up 💪 55 in Taranaki still hurts tbh but Rugby Park friday night, get in! Ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Rugby Park in the southerly drags Southland back to level, short of it. I'd want Northland -4 minimum before touching it, and even that feels thin. Passing.Bankroll discipline wins.
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Funny thing, the last Southland home game I got along to the wind was straight off the Foveaux Strait and everyone in the terraces reckoned the ball would be a hot potato. Plenty of dropped passes but the crowd didn't mind one bit 😄 that southerly turns tidy form lines into a lottery, which is why that Wellington 52 from Northland doesn't frighten me one bit. Seen worse Stags sides than this one front up on a Friday night down here.Been here longer than some have followed.
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SeenItAllFaithful nah those 55 in Taranaki still gives me nightmares 😱 but we smashed Wellington the week before, that Taniwha side CAN turn up 🔥 backing them all day tbhYou don't abandon your own.
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jess, that Wellington game is the tease isn't it - the Taniwha can look like world beaters one friday and drop a home game to Counties Manukau six days later, so good luck picking which mob rows off the bus down here. old school wisdom says the southerly sorts out who wants it more, and i'd back my Stags to want it more after 55 in Taranaki. ah well, we'll see 😉Seen it all, lads.
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Going purely on the last three weeks you'd take Northland, but that Counties Manukau home loss says pick with care. Could be wrong either way - 2 October sorts it.Do the math before you argue.
