Southland minus what?
Lost my Friday multi last week when Southland folded at Taranaki, so I'm in no rush to back them again. Two hidings in a row, Canterbury 34, Taranaki 55 — and the TAB still seems keen to make them favourites at Rugby Park on 2 October? Northland losing at home to Counties Manukau stings, but that 52:28 at Wellington wasn't a fluke. I'd want Southland around -4 max, and honestly the value's probably on Northland plus whatever they give us. 💸
11 posts
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✓Diehard, your Taranaki ticket dying was rough, but I'd separate the two losses before writing Southland off entirely. conceding 55 in New Plymouth and then 34 in Christchurch are bad, sure, though Canterbury away is a different animal from hosting a Northland side that just lost at home to Counties Manukau 19:22 after looking world-beaters against Wellington the week prior. That 52:28 in Wellington is the outlier in Northland's sample, and one big away win doesn't outweigh a home stumble against one of the weaker sides. 📊 My read: the TAB price on Southland reflects venue more than form, and I'd want them giving no more than about 4-5 at Rugby Park. Take them to win by single digits, but keep the stake modest, three data points is a small sample for anyone pricing this with confidence, mine included. The nuance is that Northland's floor looks lower away than their ceiling suggests.
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Diehard, your Taranaki ticket dying was rough, but I'd separate the two losses before writing Southland off entirely. conceding 55 in New Plymouth and then 34 in Christchurch are bad, sure, though Canterbury away is a di…"Canterbury away is a different animal" — source on that? Northland put 52 on Wellington, then lost at home to Counties. Both sides are coin flips. I'd want Southland minus nothing more than 4.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Southland minus 4 at Rugby Park, easy money 🤡 you lot crying over away losses while Northland chucked one at home to Counties. Remind me of your ROI, RobReds? 😏
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ROI? That's your argument, RobBeliever? One decent week at Wellington and suddenly the Counties loss means nothing. I'll take Southland minus 4, barely. Source on "easy money"?
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Watched the Taranaki game in the TAB queue at the pub and that Southland defence looked munted, I've got no interest in them laying points after 89 conceded in a fortnight. But Northland chasing tail at home to Counties a week after 52 in Wellington tells me they're the definition of inconsistent, so I'm not giving the away side the nod either. My call: Southland minus 2, margin band 1-12, small stake only because this smells like a coin toss. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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89 conceded in two weeks and you lot are still arguing minus 4? Show me one number that says Southland deserve the line.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Loaded up on Northland +5 here, no way I'm paying full price on a defence leaking 34 then 55. That Wellington 52:28 shows their ceiling, and one wobbly home loss to Counties doesn't wipe it out. Would RobBeliever's minus 4 have landed last week? Not against that Taranaki scoreline it wouldn't 💸Value over a big price 💸
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One good half at Wellington and suddenly that's their true level? Wellington's defence that week was worse than Southland's. I'd want the Taranaki and Counties tapes before trusting either side to cover anything.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Home advantage is the only thing keeping Southland in front of the line for me, I'd take Northland +4 all day, small NZ$20 saver on the Taranaki angle if I'm brave. Northland's ceiling at Wellington beats anything Southland have shown in three weeks 😭Value over a big price 💸
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Skipping Southland entirely at that price. 89 points conceded in a fortnight is all I need to see, and Northland's ceiling at Wellington wipes anything these lads have shown since. My margin call: Northland by 1-5, take the +4 and treat the head-to-head as the value leg if you're building a multi 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.