Southland at home on 2 October is my banker over Northland, agree?
Two straight hidings - 34 at Canterbury, 55 at Taranaki. Is rough form for any side, yet Northland losing at home to Counties Manukau a week after putting 52 on Wellington tells you their floor and ceiling are miles apart. I could be wrong, but I'd treat Southland at Rugby Park as an edge worth taking rather than a banker; context matters with both teams this volatile. Margin line looks safer than the head-to-head on its own if you're stacking the multi. 📊
11 posts
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✓The 55 at Taranaki skews it. Before that Southland kept Canterbury within two scores. Home banker's fair, but I'd want a margin line rather than trusting the head-to-head alone. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Funny how everyone's quick to write Southland off after two hidings, but Northland losing at home to Counties Manukau the week after belting Wellington is the bit that'd worry me more if I were backing them. That inconsistency has been their signature for years, hasn't it. As for the head-to-head, when these two meet down south there's rarely much in it, whoever arrives with better form. Back in the day you'd get rain, a scrappy forward battle and a six-point margin, and that suits Southland's sort of game far more than Northland's. So with the young lot never saw that, and I'd say the banker's fair value, but I'm with BadBeatKing on taking the line rather than the straight win, somewhere around a converted try feels about right given how both of them leak points. Seen worse multi legs than this one, anyway 😄
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Southland at Rugby Park with my heart on the line 🔥 form's ugly tbh but home turf changes everything, putting them in the multi. Get in if they front up 💪 ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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Banker at home after conceding 89 across two weeks? Each to their own but I'd want a better price than whatever the head-to-head pays. 💸 Worth remembering Northland lost 22-19 at home to Counties Manukau, so both sides are wobbling. If the bookmaker have Southland around even money and the margin line generous, small stakes on Southland covering might be the better play. Form says tight, she'll be right maybe. 🍺Value over a big price 💸
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Stags going down by double digits twice in a row and still being tipped as bankers 😱 gotta love this thread lol. With TrueBeliever on this one though, the head-to-head on its own smells, need something bigger. Two weeks bleeding almost 90 points matters against anyone, even a shambles like Northland who lose at HOME to Counties. My angle: skip the straight win leg, look harder at the line instead. Both sides broken, Southland have won battles before while leaking points everywhere 😅 Only reason i'll throw some coin at it (small stake, few $ past felt dumb after last fortnight anyway) is familiar ground + Northlands consistency jumping between brilliant vs trash -- can't back em overseas honestly lolMy angle: skip the straight-win leg, work the line into the multi with more meat on those stakes🔥 Either Stags FrontUp or bin the whole bet tonightYou don't abandon your own.
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Home loss to Counties Manukau is the thing that'd stop me loading up too. I'd rather take Southland straight into a multi than chase the margin line after 89 conceded 💸Value over a big price 💸
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Agree with UpsetKingAndy tbh, chasing the margin line after leaking 89 in two weeks feels mad 🤬 But we coached against some of these young Stags lads at junior level round here and trust me, there's fight in them... if the forwards turn up at Rugby Park anyway. That Counties Manukau result makes Northland hard to trust away tho 🔥 So yeah, head-to-head Southland into the multi for a small punt, maybe 30 bucks worth, but leave the winning margins alone, that wager needs more certainty than either team is showing right now 😅You don't abandon your own.
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Both sides wobbling, but Northland getting beaten at home by Counties Manukau right after tonking Wellington screams unpredictable, that's the one result that'd stop me stretching the margin. Southland h2h in the multi, small stake, and leave the line alone until we see who actually fronts up at Rugby Park 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
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UpsetKingAndy summed it up, straight Southland into the multi and leave the line alone 😅 coached a couple of these Stags juniors myself years back, they'll scrap at Rugby Park, but after leaking 89 in two weeks I ain't touching a margin. Northland at home to Counties Manukau still scares me more tbh 🤬One love, one side ❤️
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Agree with the general drift here, for what it's worth, I could be wrong, but banker status and margin-chasing are two different questions and only one of them has an answer. Southland at home on 2 October is a fair anchor because somebody has to win a match between two sides leaking like this, and Rugby Park counts for something. The margin line though? I track this stuff round by round in my own spreadsheets, and a team that's conceded 89 across two weeks while their opponent swings from 52 put on Wellington to a home loss against Counties Manukau inside a fortnight. That sample is far too noisy to price a winning margin with any confidence. Straight Southland leg into the TAB multi, sensible stake, and leave the line for braver punters than me. What I genuinely can't call is whether the Stags forwards turn up; if they do this could be tighter than the form table suggests. Who's actually sticking a number on the margin here, or is everyone just talking it down?Do the math before you argue.