Three thrashings in a month
117 conceded in a month and still the line on this one is nowhere near as wide as I expected. Home win over Hawke's Bay (32:17) is the only thing keeping me honest, so I'll take Bay of Plenty to win at Rotorua but keep the stake small, NZ$20 head-to-head at the the sportsbook, plus NZ$10 on North Harbour +8 as cover. Two results in three days from now, one of them lands 🔥
14 posts
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✓Only 31 points scored away all month (26+12+12), so home form is doing the heavy lifting here. One match sample for that win, mind. Small stake at the TAB is the sane call.Numbers > vibes.
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Guru, home form is one 15-point win against Hawke's Bay, that's the whole CV. Take away Rotorua and this side scored 50 points across three losses, so I'm happy to go the other way. North Harbour on the head-to-head plus a few quid on the margin band, small stakes because I've been burned loading up on "sure things" before. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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StatHead, remind me of your ROI? Pretty sure you backed the Steamers last time they got pumped at Southland too 😂
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Rob, my ROI is public in the spreadsheet I post after every round, which is more than your mate's tips survive. My actual angle is the four-day turnaround: Tasman chased us all over the park on the 24th, and Harbour had a shorter prep too, so both defences will look as tired as the numbers suggest. At the TAB I'll take Bay of Plenty +points rather than head-to-head, NZ$30, small sample caveat and all. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeat, that turnaround excuse cuts both ways mate 😅 Harbour had the same short prep so who's got the fresher legs? Nobody knows... I watched us pump Manawatu... at home we scored 12 😱 All I know is our lot never make it easy, so I'll chuck NZ$20 on the Steamers at the TAB and pray 🙏🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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I could be wrong, but the one number nobody's mentioned is that both Bay of Plenty losses away came with a double-digit deficit by the break, while the Hawke's Bay win at Rotorua flipped after half time. Home venue with a tight game shape suits them more than anyone's giving credit for, so NZ$15 on the Steamers at the TAB, no multi.Do the math before you argue.
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Chris, half time flip vs Hawke's Bay proves what? One game 🤬 Both away trips they were cooked by the break... I wouldn't touch the Steamers at Rotorua tbh 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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I'd lean Harbour here, quietly. What stands out to me is the pattern in the opposition quality: Hawke's Bay at 32:17 is the only result where the Steamers weren't playing a side that could punish them for errors, and I don't think Harbour's prep disadvantage outweighs that. Even the home Manawatu game ended 12:29, so "Rotorua fortress" only really applies to one afternoon. I could be wrong, but if I'm putting NZ$20 anywhere it's a small stake on Harbour, and I'd only revisit that if the line somehow drifts wide enough to make the Steamers plus points attractive. Home crowd helps a bit, sure, but 117 conceded in a month is a trend, hard out.Chris raised something interesting with the half time splits but one game is a sample of one, exactly as StandsGuy88 says. Depends how you count it too, since the Hawke's Bay flip could just be a below par forty minutes rather than a second half superpower. My angle is simpler.
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The Hawke's Bay game was at home too, so Chris's pattern is basically just "they're better at Rotorua" 😅 12 points against Manawatu, at home, mind. NZ$10 on Harbour 🤬You don't abandon your own.
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FixIsInDenier540 makes a fair point actually, home ground is doing a lot of lifting in that 32:17. My own read is about the attacking side nobody's talking about. Bay of Plenty scored 12 points in each of the two away losses and 12 at home against Manawatu, so three games out of four they produced nothing with the ball. Even the Hawke's Bay win came against a side that apparently couldn't punish their errors, as Nick says. Harbour have enough to make the Steamers pay for turnovers, so I'd be on them too, though I'd keep the stake modest. One caveat on my own table, four matches is a tiny sample and one opening half can wreck any pattern you've built. Small sample though, I'd still rather lay NZ$15 on Harbour than touch the home side at any price the TAB is likely to hang up. Rotorua crowd only carries you so far when you're coughing up 45 at Tasman.
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Measly 12 points at home to Manawatu and you lot still reckon Harbour's the safe pick 😱 I was at the HB game, crowd carried them. Small steamers multi for me 🤬🔥One love, one side ❤️
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My read's narrower than everyone's: look at the margins trend. Away losses of 19, then 31, then 17 in that Manawatu game... actually the scoring collapsed to 12 points three matches running, and Harbour away trips have been their only competitive outings of late. I could be wrong, but a side that's scored 12, 12 and 26 in its last three doesn't beat anyone by doing the basics; I'd back Harbour on the line rather than straight out, and keep the stake to what you'd lose without noticing. Rotorua crowd is real, Ben, but crowds don't tackle. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Landed on the same read as FrontRowFan, 12 points three weeks running kills any Steamers case. NZ$15 on Harbour straight up, no multi. See you after the match 💸Bankroll discipline wins.