Three from three, 121 points scored
Clean sweep talk is bold when three of the last four are up north, but I'll back the boys at Twickenham anyway. Had a multi on the line last November tour and England at home is where things got hairy, the TAB will have this one tight, and I'd want plus points on the margin before touching it. Two from two over the Wallabies in October first, then we'll see if the legs are there by the 21st. 💸
14 posts
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✓Hairy at Twickenham? Sure, but I'd flip it, the Scotland and Wales trips are where the sweep quietly dies, always have been. Give me the All Blacks by 10-12 at Twickenham and I'll wait for the line, if it opens inside single figures I'm on before it moves.Up one week, down the next. Classic.
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Touchline, I could be wrong, but the sample actually backs your caution more than the sweep talk. Three wins from three is tidy, and 121 points for against 70 conceded reads well on paper, yet that's a 51-point differential over three matches - roughly 17 per game. Fine, not dominant. The catch for me: every remaining fixture is away, four of five in fact, and northern tours in November are a different animal to home fixtures. Scotland first up on 7 November, then Wales a week later, and England at Twickenham on the 21st sitting second in the table with 15 points, I'd want the margin line at Twickenham rather than a straight win price if I was putting NZ$ on it. Full sweep? Possible on form, but history says one of those away trips usually bites. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Chris, love how you've done the maths for everyone 😂 "roughly 17 per game, not dominant", mate, weren't you the one tipping Los Pumas to pump us in the last round? That aged like milk left in a Timaru carpark. Now suddenly you're the stats whisperer with a calculator and a grudge. Fact is three from three with 121 points banked is exactly where you want to be heading into England at Twickenham on 21 November, and Ultra's right, it's Murrayfield and Cardiff where sweeps go to die, ask anyone who's watched us there before. I'll take the All Blacks by 10ish at Twickenham myself, but I'm holding until I see the TAB line. If it opens tight I'm loading up 🤡💸 Careful calling this a lottery though, some of us actually cash these things.
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To be fair to Chris, 51 points over three matches against that lot isn't a red flag, and his last-round tip doesn't change the sample. Scotland away is my soft spot too, TouchlineUltra.Do the math before you argue.
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Soft spot at Murrayfield? 😂 Scotland away is where tours go to die for the northern sides too, 17 a game difference means we still win by three scores in every match... Call it All Blacks by 9 at Twickenham, taking that line the second the TAB open it 🔥💪One love, one side ❤️
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Murrayfield is my leak in the sweep too, and I'll tell you why: nobody has actually checked whether 121 points came against sides that defend set phase. Depending how you count it, maybe 20 of those came from turnovers when games were already gone - Scotland at home rarely gives you that gift. I could be wrong, but I'd take England by single digits before I touch a clean-sweep multi; my ledger says back the tour leg by leg 📊
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NickDiehard, who cares where the 121 came from mate, a try's a try 😂 Scotland at Murrayfield has been feeding us tries for years, you're talking yourself into a scare that ain't there. I was coaching juniors Saturday and even the kids reckon we smash them. All Blacks by 12, backing them all day 🔥💪You don't abandon your own.
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NickDiehard's onto something. Quality of opposition matters more than the raw 121. My table says pace drops away on hard Murrayfield turf in November, so Scotland's my worry too. Small sample though.Numbers > vibes.
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Everyone's suddenly a turf expert when the tour hits Scotland 😂 Nick, mate, you watched different matches to me if you reckon that 121 was all garbage time. I was at the sheds after a club game years back when we got pumped by a side that'd "only" won ugly - winning's winning, and the boys are humming right now. FullbackNut's line of 9 at Twickenham feels about right tbh, though England at home is where I've had my heart broken before, remember that horror one where we led the whole way and choked? Anyway. Scotland worries me less than BadBeatKing's weather science, hard track in November cuts both ways, our blokes grew up on hard tracks. All Blacks by 10 at Murrayfield, by 9 at Twickenham, lumping a TAB multi with the Wales game too 🔥💪 if it goes tits up ah well, nowt to doYou don't abandon your own.
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Interesting argument both ways, but nobody's mentioned the away factor yet. Three home matches in that 121, then five straight on the road, my own tracking shows sides travelling north after a long domestic block score roughly a try less per match, though the sample size is small. Scotland at Murrayfield still worries me more than England does.
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Turf experts and try-less-away-tracking, calm down 😂 played on frozen decks up north years ago, our lot never make it easy but we'll sort Scotland. ABs by 12 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Don't laugh, guys, but I'd take the under on tries at Murrayfield, November nights up there get grim and the ABs sometimes just grind it out 😅 England match, do we reckon the TAB line will favour us?Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏
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Chasing the sweep multi is how bankrolls die 😭 I've landed mine: ABs by 1-12 at Twickenham, small stake. Scotland under is tempting though 🔥 See you after the whistle 💸The line moves — catch it.