Tasman at Trafalgar Park vs Waikato on 3 October: who wins?
Put $40 on Tasman straight up at the TAB last night and I'd also look at them covering the line. Home form is doing the talking for me - 45:26 over Bay of Plenty and 42:28 against Wellington at Trafalgar Park, whereas away they got smashed 33:57 at Otago. Waikato away is a tough ask for anyone, so I'm backing the fortress. If it doesn't land, on and forgotten by Sunday 💸
15 posts
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✓I could be wrong, but $40 straight up on Tasman feels like you're paying for the venue twice. Split the sample: at Trafalgar Park they've put up 45:26 over Bay of Plenty and 42:28 against Wellington, which is genuinely good scoring. Away from Nelson it's a different outfit entirely, 33:57 at Otago was a hammering and 22:24 at home to Auckland shows even the fortress leaks against top sides. Waikato away means the road version of Tasman turns up, and that's the one that conceded 57. My lean would be Waikato on the line rather than Tasman straight up; if you want to stay green, the home/away split is the only stat here that actually separates the two scenarios, and it points against you. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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I could be wrong, but $40 straight up on Tasman feels like you're paying for the venue twice. Split the sample: at Trafalgar Park they've put up 45:26 over Bay of Plenty and 42:28 against Wellington, which is genuinely g…But Auckland came to Trafalgar Park and pinched it 24:22. The fortress only held when the defence showed up. That Otago collapse worries me, I'd take Waikato on the line 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Love how StatHeadnerd suddenly remembers the Auckland loss the second the line moves his way. Where was this defensive concern when everyone was crowning Tasman last month? Your tips have been a lottery all season mate, and in reality you'd struggle to pick your own nose. 😏 That said, taking Waikato on the line is the first sensible thing you've said in a while. 33:57 at Otago tells you everything about this side away from home, and Trafalgar Park saved them once when Auckland only pinched it by two. Fortress or false hope? I'm with the hammering version. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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RobbedAgain has a point tbh, that Otago 57 scares the daylights out of me 😱 No way I'm trusting Tasman straight up vs Waikato. Home or not. 🔥
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Try scoring first. Tasman conceded 24 at home to Auckland and 57 at Otago, so Waikato on the line is the only bet I'd touch. Straight up is a trap.Numbers > vibes.
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Yeah nah, everyone cherry-picking scores now? We put 45 on BoP and 42 on Wellington at Trafalgar Park, back them at home all day 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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BadBeatKing's scoring-first angle is the one thing nobody's followed through on, so let me: Tasman's three wins at Trafalgar Park all came after fast starts, while the Otago collapse was them chasing from early on, if Waikato get the first points, that 33:57 pattern repeats. I could be wrong, but I'd rather wait and take Tasman in-play once I see the first quarter, and I'd leave the straight-up alone entirely. LooseheadLoyal, 45 and 42 at home is real, but Auckland put 24 on you at the same ground a week earlier, so the fortress argument has a hole in it.Do the math before you argue.
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Fast starts eh? Didn't Auckland score first at Trafalgar Park too and walked off with it 😱 everyone's acting like Waikato will just roll over and let Tasman have the ball, nah I've seen this movie. Line or nothing for me, straight up is a trap 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Funny how everyone argues form but the spread between Tasman's home and away defence is the whole market. Split those samples and Trafalgar Park looks real; lump them together and it's noise. Line for me.
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everyone forgetting Auckland scored first AT Trafalgar Park and still had us sweating til the end 😱 home fortress? we'll see eh 🔥
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BenBlues71 actually has the strongest point in this thread and nobody's picked up on it properly. If you split Tasman's month by who scored first, Auckland went ahead at Trafalgar Park and still won 22:24, so the "fast start at home" story has a hole in it. I could be wrong, but the way I read the sample: the wins over Wellington (42:28) and Bay of Plenty (45:26) came against sides happy to trade tries, while Auckland ground it out and Otago simply blew them off the park 57:33. Waikato's problem is nobody in this thread has said what their style actually is, and that decides everything here. So for me the value sits with whoever's backing Tasman +points rather than straight up, the Otago game tells me their floor away from Nelson is ugly, but at Trafalgar Park even a bad Tasman night looks like a one-score loss. FixIsInPTSD is right that the home/away split is the market, I'd just add that the Auckland loss means the fortress is soft in the middle, only bulletproof at the edges. 📊
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Auckland scored first at Trafalgar Park and still lost, Nick - 24:22 our way 😅 one slow start doesn't kill the fortress story. Line for me too 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Four games tells you almost nothing, so why is everyone so confident? Look at the pattern: comfortable wins at home against Wellington and Bay of Plenty, but a narrow 22:24 loss to Auckland at Trafalgar Park and a 33:57 hiding in Dunedin. Two decent home performances against mid-table opposition don't make a fortress. What happens when Waikato score first at Trafalgar Park like Auckland did? FanaticZone, $40 on the nose because of home form. Source on that being anything more than small sample noise? I'd want to see Tasman beat a genuinely good side at home before I put a cent down. I'll believe it when I see it.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Sorted my weekend ticket already: Tasman head-to-head plus the line, $60 all up, and I left the try scorer out because Trafalgar Park games have been scrappy in patches. Home form is real enough — Wellington and Bay of Plenty both put away comfortably, but that Otago trip showed what happens when the set piece goes sideways. Auckland only just nicked it at Nelson too, so the fortress isn't bulletproof like some here reckon. Waikato away is the stiffest test of the lot, so I'm on them but not confident enough to loaded up beyond my normal stake. If they're in front at the 50 minute mark the bet lands, otherwise I'll wear it. See you all after full time 😅💸Bankroll discipline wins.