Japan v Fiji, 24 October: is the TAB start on Fiji really that fat?
Lost a double-digit line on Fiji last spring and still get flashbacks, so trust me when I say I've stared at this 24 October opener too long. Fiji sit 6th with zero points and 49-145 across three losses, yet the TAB are still making Japan comfortable favourites, Japan themselves are only 5th with one win and a 62-88 record. That start on Fiji looks fat to me; value over a big price, I'd take the points, small stake though. 💸
15 posts
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✓TouchlineLoyal's flashbacks make sense, but I've got the table in front of me and the raw goal difference is misleading if you read it flat. Yes, Fiji are 0 from 3 with 49-145, while Japan sit 5th on four points with 62-88 — but both of these sides have been conceding in heaps, so the line really hinges on which defence collapses harder on the day. There's a nuance here: Japan's record is built on grinding tight margins (four points from three matches means a losing bonus or two in the mix), whereas Fiji's zero suggests they've been blown out, and blowout teams can either be broken or due a reaction. Small sample though - three rounds tells you form, not true strength, and I'd want to see how Fiji's attack actually functioned across those 49 points before touching anything double-digit. My honest read: the TAB pricing Japan as clear favourites is defensible on consistency alone, but a fat start on Fiji smells like a trap for punters chasing value off one number.
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TouchlineLoyal's flashbacks make sense, but I've got the table in front of me and the raw goal difference is misleading if you read it flat. Yes, Fiji are 0 from 3 with 49-145, while Japan sit 5th on four points with 62-…Misleading how, exactly? 49-145 against is a fair reading. Three tries' worth of line on Fiji looks generous to me. Where's your evidence Japan's defence is any better?
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GloryDays asking for evidence when both defences are leaking like a colander is the funniest bit of this thread 😂 62-88 is barely prettier than 49-145, one win between the pair of them all campaign, and the TAB still fancy Japan by double digits? Both these mobs conceded in heaps for three rounds, so the "favourite" here is basically just whoever concedes slightly less, which is a lottery ticket dressed up as a line. Me, I wouldn't touch Fiji getting that start unless it's small. One win in the bank beats zero, and Japan at home against a side shipping tries for fun reads live to me, but anyone throwing big NZ$ on either outcome deserves the flashback TouchlineLoyal's already having 🤡 And in reality, does a double-digit line on a team with one win from three ever scream value to you? 💸😏Here to argue, not to nod along.
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GloryDays asking the only sensible question in here 😏 49-145 across three matches tells its own story, and anyone calling that raw number "misleading" needs to lay off the craft beers. By that logic Fiji's defence is just misunderstood performance art. I learned this lesson on a fat start like that a while back, dropped a lazy NZ$50 and spent the final quarter watching it evaporate, so TouchlineLoyal's flashbacks hit close to home. Caveat from me though: Japan shipping 88 themselves means neither of these mobs could defend a wet paper bag, so there's no free money in this line whichever way you lean. Two sides conceding at that rate, one win between them all campaign, honestly it's a lottery, not sport, and the TAB still expecting us to swallow a double-digit start on Japan anyway is pure comedy 🤡Any stat can be bent.
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Worth remembering Fiji's next three after this are France, Ireland and Italy away. That November stretch might explain why the market is pricing them so grimly here, since the TAB tends to shade lines toward a side with nothing left to protect. I could be wrong, but Japan's 62-88 reads softer partly because they've faced the weaker half of the draw. A double-digit start on Fiji still smells like a trap to me though 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan might be onto something there, the November road trip looming over Fiji's pricing makes sense 😏 But remind me of your ROI on fading double-digit lines, TouchlineLoyal? Because I dropped NZ$100 on a similar "generous" start last year and watched it limp home by three. Zero points or not, Fiji running France and Ireland into the ground beforehand doesn't make Japan's 88 conceded any prettier. Sure thing, mate, I'll believe the fat line when I see the team sheets.Any stat can be bent.
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I keep my own table every round and the nuance I'd add is this: Japan's 62-88 across three matches came against the top of the draw, while Fiji's 49-145 reads like a side that's stopped competing after the first half of each game. Same zero-ish results, very different shape underneath, and I suspect that's partly what the TAB is paying for. Could be wrong, but I'd also flag that both teams go into a brutal November afterwards, Japan draw Wales, England and Scotland away, Fiji get France, Ireland and Italy. Two tired sides with nothing to protect usually makes for a scrappier, tighter Test than the table suggests. Double-digit start on Fiji still smells like a trap to me; I've been stung enough times to keep any stake here small and separate from the weekend multi. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard has it right, that 49-145 smells like a side that clocks off at halftime, seen it too many times watching matches at the pub 😂 Still wouldn't touch a double-digit start on Fiji with your money let alone mine, Japan only manage 5th with a minus-26 themselves, hardly world beaters. TAB pricing this one as if only one team turned up all Championship, cheeky.Any stat can be bent.
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The detail nobody's mentioned yet: Fiji's remaining fixtures are brutal (France, Ireland, Italy all away), which suggests they'll be managing bodies and minutes through this window — so whether they clock off at halftime on the 24th could be a selection decision as much as a form issue. I could be wrong, but if they treat this Japan Test as the one match they actually want to win, that 49-145 tells you very little. Japan's minus-26 against a tougher draw keeps them honest, though; the line still feels live to me. 📊
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NickDiehard's right about the rotation angle, sure thing, mate, but managing minutes still means a flat first half, and I've paid for that before 🤡💸
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Worth adding: Japan also face Wales, England and Scotland away straight after the 24th, so they'll be husbanding bodies too. Fat TAB lines on tired Test sides rarely pay, small sample though.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's got the right read here, both sides resting bodies before brutal away tours means the line's built on sand 😏 I lumped NZ$50 on Japan -whatever-it-was against Fiji a couple seasons back purely off Fiji's form table, watched them lead at halftime and I sweated every minute of the second half. Laughable really, that 49-145 is doing all the persuading and the actual footy says Japan minus-26 aren't exactly raiders of lost territory either. If you must take the double-digit start, half-stake it and thank me later 💸It's a lottery, not sport.
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145 points shipped in three games and the TAB still wants us to trust Fiji to keep it inside double digits? nah, their defence has been a revolving door all window 😅 but Japan leaking 88 themselves makes me nervous too tbhOn the terraces since I was a kid.
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Both defences are leaking, so a double-digit start on Fiji feels like a trap to me. I'd rather take Japan straight head-to-head and leave the line alone 💸The line moves — catch it.