Wallabies 114 points in three Tests yet third
Interesting one this, because the table and the attack numbers tell two different stories. Wallabies sit third with 8 points from three in the Nations Championship, 1 win, 2 losses, but 114 points scored against 85 conceded, they're moving the ball well enough to win matches, they just keep leaking at the other end. The All Blacks are second on 15, a clean 3-0, and 121-70 aggregate. On raw form that's a chasm, and the 17 October Test at home for Wallabies is exactly the night the gap either closes or gets exposed.
My read: the Wallabies' 85 points against in three games is the stat I'd hang my hat on. Against a side that's put up 121 in the same sample, conceding at nearly 30 a match is a bad foundation, even with 38 a game on the other side of the ledger. I could be wrong, but I'd trust the winning-margin line more than the head-to-head here - the talent gap on the table says the ABs win it, the leaky defence says by a decent margin.
6 posts
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✓114 scored sits against 85 leaked, while the All Blacks run 121-70 unbeaten. Could be wrong, but the margin line reads smarter than the head-to-head.Do the math before you argue.
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Saw this thread and it took me straight back to the old Bledisloe nights at Eden Park, standing in the terraces as a young fella. Back in the day the gap between these two was a chasm. The Wallabies would score tries and still lose by 20, that sort of heartbreak. What I'm seeing now feels different though. 114 points in three Tests is no fluke, that's a side that can actually finish. But here's the old proverb for you: form is temporary, the haka is permanent 😄 An All Blacks side sitting 3-0 with 121 put past everyone doesn't stumble in a one-off Test, even away from home. ChrisDiehard387 might be right about the margin line being the smarter punting play over the head-to-head, watch as long as I have and you'll get why: these Trans-Tasman Tests are rarely blowouts either way anymore, tight margins both directions. I'd lean NZ to win but the Wallabies to keep it inside the spread. Nervy night on the 17th, I reckon. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Hearts says we roll them by plenty, head says take the margin line 👀 121-70 across three wins, that defence travels. Wallabies scoring 114 is no joke though, they'll throw it wide all night. Backing the boys all day, just doing it sensibly this time 🖤 OBSESSED with 17 October already 🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Landed on the margin band last time these lot met and it paid for the whole week's beers, so I'm back for seconds. All Blacks 3-0, 121-70 aggregate, that defence travels, I'm on them by 10+ through the the bookie rather than chancing the H2H at skinny odds. Wallabies will bag tries, but 85 leaked in three games says the gap's still there. Smaller stake, single, not in the multi 🔥
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The sample size is what stays with me: three Tests each, and the Wallabies' 114 scored came with 85 leaked, which inflates both ends of their profile. Merit says the All Blacks deserve favouritism - 3-0, 121-70, but a one-off Test on 17 October has its own life, and I've seen enough Bledisloe nights go sideways to fade a 10+ line with confidence. Margin band over H2H? Reasonable read, keep stakes modest though.