Taranaki smashed Southland 55:19
Backed Taranaki at home ever since the Auckland game landed and paid my multi leg, that form's real. Wellington away trip to New Plymouth is a tough ask for anyone, I'd take Taranaki -7 at the sportsbook and I reckon they cover comfortably. Hawke's Bay on 27 September is the sneaky one though, away after a big home win is where lines bite, so I'm leaving that alone or small stakes only. 💸
13 posts
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✓Three wins from four with a 36-point hammering of Southland, the form stacks up, TouchlineUltra. I could be wrong, but -7 looks light; the Hawke's Bay trip first is the real test. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Trust me, that Hawke's Bay away trip burns a few multis every year - imagine they grind out a tight one there, suddenly the line's moved past double digits. I'm taking Taranaki by 20+ only if they rest nobody. 🔥💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Confident lot in here - half of you couldn't tip the weather 🤡. I've got NZ$20 on Taranaki by 15+ at the TAB, purely to laugh if Hawke's Bay flattens them first 😏
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Coach the juniors in Tauranga and even I wouldn't tip by 15+ against Wellington 😂 Fullback_Faithful your NZ$20's brave tbh, one windy arvo at Stadium Taranaki and that bet's toast. Hawke's Bay first though, everyone's forgetting that trip 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Just finished updating my round table and something jumped out that nobody's flagged yet: points conceded. Taranaki have let in 58 across four matches, and 52 of those came in the two games where the opposition actually fronted. The 55:19 against Southland flatters the whole picture, because Southland were poor in contact all afternoon. Auckland at 28:12 is the result I trust more. On that basis I'm with Millie on the 15+ line being brave, Fullback_Faithful - Wellington away from home games is a different animal and the wind off the coast at Stadium Taranaki can turn a 20-point plan into a scrap. My order of operations: Hawke's Bay on 27 September first, because if they get turned over there, the Wellington line on 4 October shifts a mile. I could be wrong, but I'd take Taranaki by 8–12 over Wellington rather than chasing the big margin. For the record, the only loss was that one-pointer at Manawatu, which still stings when I look at my sheet.Do the math before you argue.
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ChrisDiehard, 58 conceded tells me nothing when Southland copped 55 😅 everyone fronted up eventually mate. You just know a wind coming off the coast at Stadium Taranaki messes with the line anyway, who's brave enough to back Wellington there, honestly? 🤬🔥
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ChrisDiehard has a point buried in that 58 conceded, and I'd add the nuance differently: look at scoring rate per match rather than totals. Three wins averaging 34 points scored against one off-night at Manawatu reads like a genuine jump in attack, though the sample is four rounds, so I wouldn't hang my bankroll on it. My line: Taranaki by 10-12 over Wellington at Stadium Taranaki, but I'd want the Hawke's Bay trip banked first before touching anything near 15+. 📊
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Played through that coast wind myself, Millie's right tbh 😅 Hawke's Bay away first, everyone sleeping on it. Wellington later, we'll smash em 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Kept my own margin table on them all season and the jump after round two is real — Auckland got held to 12 at Stadium Taranaki, that's my quiet tell.
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Quiet tell? Nah Nick, Auckland turned up with half a forward pack that night, everyone knows it 😅 and one windy arvo at Stadium Taranaki doesn't make you Wellington-beaters on 4 October. Hawke's Bay away on the 27th will sort the real punters from the dreamers first anyway, ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Faithful's got half a point about Auckland's forwards, but the bit everyone keeps skipping is the Manawatu game on 10 September. Taranaki lost 25:27 away, sure, yet they still put 25 on the board in a match where nothing stuck. That's four straight rounds scoring 25-plus, and the Wellington fixture is home at Stadium Taranaki on 4 October, where they've conceded 12 and 19 in their last two there. Wellington's a different grade of opponent, mind, I'd want to see the line before touching it, because the market will price that Southland blowout right in and -7 or better might be cooked. My read: Hawke's Bay away on the 27th is the actual tell. Win that trip convincingly and the home form stops being a ground effect; grind out a narrow one and I'd fade Taranaki off the goalposts. Small sample though - four games is barely a table row, so I'm staking light either way. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Put NZ$20 on Taranaki -7 at home vs Wellington for 4 October and stuck the Hawke's Bay trip on 27 September as a leg in my multi, small stake because away games there don't always land. That 55:19 was on and forgotten, Manawatu away is the wobble I keep checking the line for. See you after the match 🔥Value over a big price 💸