So which Taranaki turns up
Put NZ$20 on the Taranaki multi last Saturday. Southland head-to-head plus 13+ margin, and it landed at decent odds, paid enough for a round of beers in town. So I'm riding the good one, not the Manawatu mob.
Hawke's Bay away on the 27th, I'll take Taranaki but only if the line stays under about 6. Away grounds in this comp are where the tidy favourites get turned over, we saw that in Palmy. Wellington at home on the 4th is the one I'd actually bet: they beat Auckland fair and square, so I'm expecting TAB to have them clear favourites and I'd happily pay for them minus whatever the line is. Two legs in a multi, small stake, on and forgotten either way.
14 posts
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✓Congrats on the multi, that 55:19 was the cherry on top. I'd caveat the celebration though: three games is a tiny sample, and the Manawatu away score (25:27) says their road form runs about two scores softer than what they showed at Stadium Taranaki. So I lean the same way as you on Hawke's Bay, take Taranaki only if the line stays inside 6; Wellington at home on 4 October is the safer leg of the two, I'd back them there regardless. 📊
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Congrats on the multi, that 55:19 was the cherry on top. I'd caveat the celebration though: three games is a tiny sample, and the Manawatu away score (25:27) says their road form runs about two scores softer than what th…Two scores softer away? Fair call, but the Manawatu game was midweek-ish turnover territory after the Auckland win, and every punter knows those trip games land differently. The 55:19 on Southland came with real tempo - that side of them shows up more often than not, and I'd rather back the home form anyway: beat Auckland 28:12 at Stadium Taranaki too. My call: take Hawke's Bay on the 27th with Taranaki straight head-to-head and skip the line, then load up properly for Wellington at home on 4 October, 13+ margin if the TAB price justifies it. I've been burnt before chasing a multi with an away line leg. Dropped NZ$50 on exactly that sort of thing last season when the underdog covered late, so this time the risky bit stays home where Taranaki actually fires. FanaticZone's under-6 condition on the 27th, would that have landed last week? Probably, but I wouldn't touch a 6-point road spread either way.Bankroll discipline wins.
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StatHeadAnalyst easing the loss with "trip games land differently" - sure thing, mate, and my last multi landed differently too, straight into the bin 😂 Funny how the excuses only show up after the TAB slip dies. You all tanked the Manawatu call as well, let's not rewrite history now. My read: away at Hawke's Bay on the 27th is where this side shows its true colours, and I've seen enough 25:27-type stinkers to not trust them past the ditch to Napier. Home to Wellington on the 4th, different story - they torched Southland 55:19 at Stadium Taranaki, that's a real signal. So Taranaki home, Hawke's Bay away for me, and if the line drifts past 6 I'm not touching it 🤡 Don't come crying about turnover talk when it folds again 💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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Ouch GoThe 💀 but he's got a point tbh. We were ALL on Manawatu on those slips 🤬 Anyways, drubbing Southland means nought away in Napier. Did we forget that fast?? ah well, nowt to do 💪🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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Fair point from GoThe about rewriting history, but I'd add a wrinkle nobody's touched: Auckland and Southland were both at Stadium Taranaki, where the crowd and conditions clearly suit them, while the one road trip in the sample (Manawatu) went pear-shaped. So my call for Napier on 27 September is a narrow Hawke's Bay win unless the TAB line gives Taranaki a start of roughly two scores, at home against Wellington on 4 October I'd back them comfortably. Could be wrong, but I'm treating venue as the real variable here 📊Do the math before you argue.
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So every roadie's gonna go munted now cos Manawatu clipped em? One away loss and suddenly Stadium Taranaki carries the whole footy squad around NP 😂 Gut says they beat Hawke's Bay, worry about Wellington later 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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I'd push back gently on both of you: three matches is a sample size so small that "home fortress" and "road nightmares" are both overfitting. Context matters, Manawatu came on a short turnaround midweek, Southland looked cooked by the 50th minute, so the swing could be opponent quality as much as venue. I could be wrong, but for Napier I'd lean Taranaki straight win without touching the margin line, and leave the Wellington home call until we see how they travel.
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Southland cooked by the 50th? Bruv we smashed em 55:19, own it 😂 Two home wins, I'm backing them all day at the TAB. Napier guts call 💪🔥You don't abandon your own.
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Marking a pile of essays last night I kept thinking about margin variance, which says more about me than the kids. Anyway: I actually agree with NickDiehard's caveat but from a different angle, look at the scoring rate, not the venue. Across three rounds Taranaki have put up 28, 25 and 55. The attack never left the building; the Manawatu game was a one-score loss on the road with a midweek turnaround. That's a high floor with a wobbly defence away from New Plymouth. So my call: Hawke's Bay away in Napier on 27 September I'd take Taranaki to win but I'd want the line, because road games compress margins, I'd probably play them around -4 or less if the the book offers it, small stake, maybe NZ$10-15 of my usual NZ$50 weekly. Wellington at home on 4 October at Stadium Taranaki? Straight win, back them all day. Small sample though. Three data points and I'm fitting a curve like everyone else. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Yeah but even cooked teams don't ship 55, they had a hand in that 😤 Manawatu away still stings though, seen us do that folding act too many times to forget. Napier I'll take the win, Wellington at Stadium Taranaki on the 4th? Gut says yes, wallet says nervous 💪🔥Heart with the team, head on pause.
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BadBeatKing's scoring-rate point is the right thread to pull, but I'd add a layer nobody's mentioned yet: turnover of possession. The Auckland and Manawatu games were grindy, low-margin affairs where Taranaki held ball and played territory; Southland fell apart once they started forcing offloads out of their own half. That's why the margin jumped from double digits to 36 in a week. The style of opposition dictated the scoreline far more than any home/away split. I could be wrong, but the tape from the Manawatu loss looks like a handling error count problem, not an effort problem. So my call: Hawke's Bay away on the 27th is the honest test, because Napier will make them play the same patient game that beat them in Palmerston North. I'd take Taranaki by a narrow margin there, but I wouldn't touch a 13+ line.Do the math before you argue.
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Was at the Southland game, we were firing on all cylinders and it showed 😂 but Chris, mate, one side of the ball doesn't explain Manawatu away, we folded like a cheap deck chair there. Gut call: win in Napier on the 27th, Wellington on the 4th I'm nervy about, no way I'm touching the bookmaker line on that one 🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Napier on the 27th I'm on Taranaki head-to-head, and the 55:19 has me brave enough to add the odd try scorer leg for Wellington at home on the 4th. Manawatu away reminded me yesterday's payout doesn't pay today's TAB slip though, so keeping stakes small. See you after the match, one of these will land 💸Up one week, down the next. Classic.