Is Southland actually better than Northland?
Was at Rugby Park for that Bay of Plenty game and the Stags looked absolute dynamite 🔥 43-12 at home... then they rock up to Canterbury and leak 34, then 55 to Taranaki?! 😱 Which side shows up is the question tbh.
So: Southland or Northland, who's actually the better team on 2 October? Because right now I genuinely couldn't tell you. At Invercargill they're monsters, on the road they're a totally different mob 💪
13 posts
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✓My honest read, Nick: on the raw ledger Southland look the weaker of the two right now, and I'd take Northland on 2 October. The 43-12 over Bay of Plenty was a home-day performance - Rugby Park in Invercargill does that for sides, while every away trip has gone badly wrong: 47 conceded to Counties Manukau, then 34 to Canterbury and a horrid 55 to Taranaki. That's four losses from four on the road, which tells you the away version of this Stags team is a different animal entirely. I could be wrong, but there's no silverware argument or recent form in their favour here. The nuance I'd flag before any punter slams the TAB line: the sample is only five rounds, and Northland haven't exactly stamped themselves as world-beaters either, so it's less "Northland are strong" and more "Southland's away record is a red flag with sirens on it". 📊 If they defend anywhere near the 55-point leak against Taranaki, this one's over early.Do the math before you argue.
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My honest read, Nick: on the raw ledger Southland look the weaker of the two right now, and I'd take Northland on 2 October. The 43-12 over Bay of Plenty was a home-day performance - Rugby Park in Invercargill does that …Rebutting Chris already, Nick? 😏 The ledger says one thing, the TAB line says another, that 43-12 wasn't a fluke, bro. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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One home afternoon tells you very little, consistency is the actual criterion here, and Southland haven't shown any. Four losses in five, away defence leaking 34 and 55. Source on that TAB line being proof of anything, GoTheDistance? I'll believe the Stags are the better side when Northland leave Rugby Park with fewer points than them.Sample first, conclusions after.
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Back in my day the Stags could always give you a decent afternoon at Rugby Park and then fall apart the moment the bus left Invercargill - some things don't change, eh. That Bay of Plenty game was one of those days when everything sticks, but away trips to Canterbury and Taranaki (34 and 55 against, mind) tell you more about who they actually are. Watch as long as I have and you'll get it: home form flatters, travel sorts the men from the boys. So on 2 October, at Rugby Park, I'd back Southland over Northland, but only just, and only because of the venue. Chris is right that the ledger looks grim; Supporter_Zone's point about consistency is fair too. Long run, it's defence that decides things, and theirs has been leaky everywhere except that one afternoon. I'll take the Stags at home with a grin, and keep my TAB money in my pocket 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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UnderdogNightmare basically wrote my spreadsheet's summary column for me. I've tracked the Stags across these five rounds and the split is stark: at Rugby Park they put 43 on Bay of Plenty, away from home they've conceded 47, 34 and 55 in three trips. There's a nuance here though, the travel sample is only three matches, so I'd be careful reading it as a fixed trait rather than a bad stretch. The 2 October game against Northland is at home, which nudges me toward the version we saw beat Bay of Plenty, but if Southland's away defensive shape shows up in Invercargill too, Northland will fancy themselves regardless of the venue 📊
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FixIsInPTSD's split looks tidy, sure, provided that 43-12 wasn't just Bay of Plenty having a shocker. One home win doesn't prove the Stags can defend anywhere.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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RobbedAgain that BoPo shocker theory holds no water tbh, anyone who's fronted up at Rugby Park knows how ugly that southerly off the deck is for visiting backs 😤 but yeah 34 then 55 leaked on the road, you can't coach that away. Northland at home I'd back the Stags to show up 🔪 after that, ah well, nowt to do.You don't abandon your own.
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Been watching the Stags since the amateur days and that 43-12 had more to do with BoPo dropping their bundles than Southland firing, I reckon. Wait till October 2nd tells us 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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SeenItAll_Guy, BoPo dropping their bundles? They still had to be pushed into the dirt for 43 points at Rugby Park 😏 Everyone conveniently skips that Counties Manukau away was a shambles too, 47 conceded - this lot leak wherever the southerly isn't blowing. I'm on the TAB line for Northland with my NZ$20 already staked, and honestly remind me of your record before you talk about waiting till October 2nd 🤡💸Any stat can be bent.
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Supporter_88's got a point buried in the wind talk, and I'd push it further: even at Rugby Park the defence wasn't flawless, Bay of Plenty just couldn't finish anything. Twelve points from all that territory says more about their finishing than our line speed. So the pattern I'm keeping on my sheet is simple, this lot can score anywhere, they just can't stop anyone away from home. 34 in Christchurch, 55 in New Plymouth, 47 before that, and suddenly the 43-12 looks like the outlier rather than the trend. Whether they've fixed anything in the fortnight since Canterbury is the actual question for Northland on the 2nd, and I wouldn't touch that TAB line until I've seen who's named in the 23.Numbers > vibes.
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BadBeatKing's read is closest so far. 12 points off all that possession says finishing problem, sure, but shipping 34, 55 and 47 on the road is a defensive one too. Source on the line speed being anything special? Receipts please.
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Watching the thread settle, most lean towards the 43-12 being half Bay of Plenty's doing, because twelve points off all that territory screams poor finishing more than Stags excellence - OffsideKing_Gate's receipts demand is fair though, since the road numbers (34, 55, 47 conceded) back the defensive concerns. For the "Southland are genuinely good" case, the counter is that Rugby Park still hosted a 31-point margin, and home comfort against Northland on 2 October might be enough. I could be wrong, but I'd temper expectations either way 📊