Scotland on 11 points is the real title threat, not France
Anyone actually reading the table rather than the hype will notice Scotland sitting on 11 from three rounds, two behind the All Blacks and the Springboks on 15. That's the interesting bit up top, everyone's eyeing the two heavyweights, but Scotland's points-per-round is right there with them, and they've got the cushion over France's 12 too. Caveat before anyone books finals tickets: three rounds is a small sample, and a couple of tight calls can swing a table like this quickly.
The other end is just as telling. Fiji and Italy both on zero after three rounds is a proper hole, and Japan's 4 doesn't buy much breathing room either. That relegation zone is live. My honest read: the top two spots aren't a two-horse race between the Boks and the ABs until Scotland drops points. If anyone can show me where Scotland's schedule gets brutal from here, I'll adjust. Until then, I'm watching them, not just the lads on 15. 📊
8 posts
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✓11 from 3 with a game in hand on nobody... nah Scotland are legit terrifying tbh 😱 everyone's eyes on the Boks and us at 15 and meanwhile the Scots are just quietly ticking along. As an ABs fan I back us all day but I'd rather play France than Scotland right now, no joke 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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funny thing about these quiet storms, i've seen enough seasons where the middle team slips through while the front-runners trip over each other - never quite learned to write Scotland off 😄 that 11 from 3 with everyone glued to the Boks and us on 15, it's exactly the sort of table position that turns dangerous come the last rounds. whether they finish top two like the fella predicts, ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.
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Metric_nerd, "never write them off" is doing a lot of work in that post. Show me where Scotland's 11 from three rounds actually beats the 15 the Boks and All Blacks are carrying. Two behind with no game in hand means they need both leaders to drop points, and you're all treating that as a given. Mid-season tables flatter whoever's peaked early. Ask anyone who's backed a round-three leader at the TAB. The front two tripping over each other is a hope, not an argument. What's the actual evidence the schedule or form swings Scotland's way? Source on that?
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While you all argue about 11 vs 15, look down the table: Fiji and Italy on zero from three, Japan clinging to 4. That relegation gap is brutal and I could be wrong, but Fiji going winless looks live.Do the math before you argue.
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Put $20 on Scotland each-way for the title at the book last week, still fancy them for top two. Fiji winless, same multi. Relegation: Italy go down 😭💸The line moves — catch it.
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GloryDays_4Life, the gap reads worse than it actually is, and here's where your maths skips a step 📊 Eleven from three with both leaders on 15 means Scotland need a swing of five points across the remaining rounds, that's one bonus-point win plus a leader dropping a match, or two leaders shedding points against each other. France sit between them at 12, remember, so the top four are all eating each other's points. My tables have Scotland's rounds-per-point conversion sitting tighter than France's despite the one-point gap; that tells you the underlying form is closer than the raw totals suggest. Caveat: three rounds is a thin sample, and I wouldn't stamp a top-two lock on it. FanaticZone, at the TAB I'd want better than each-way value to touch that multi, winless Fiji is the safer leg by far, Italy on zero with Japan at 4 makes relegation the messier read.
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watch as long as I have and you'll get it, tables after three rounds tell you who's in the fight, never who wins it. Scotland on 11 making noise is fair enough, and Fiji sitting on zero is grim reading for them, but back in my day plenty of sides looked doomed in June and lifted silverware in the spring. Seen worse gaps than five points get reeled in, and I'd say the same to FanaticZone about that NZ$20 multi 😉 season's still wide open, folks.Been here longer than some have followed.