Three rounds in and Springboks AND All Blacks are locked on 15 points
Three rounds, two teams on 15 points, and France only three back at 12 with Scotland at 11. I've kept my own table for years and I can't remember the top being this compressed this early. What makes it spicy is that the Springboks and the All Blacks are dead level, so the next head-to-head round effectively decides who carries the psychological edge into the back half.
I could be wrong, but I'd watch France more than the gap itself. At 12 from 3 they're close enough that one upset flips the whole picture, and Scotland at 11 aren't making up the numbers either. Down the other end it's grim: Fiji and Italy both on 0 from 3, Japan scraping 4. Relegation math rarely decides a title but it shapes how desperate the bottom sides get against the leaders, and desperation wins are exactly what could blink this race wide open. 📊
11 posts
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✓Get in, level pegging after three and my heart can't take it 😱🔥 Backs the All Blacks all the way tbh, we don't blink, the Boks do. France at 12 scares me a bit but nah, we've got this, through thick and thin. Ah well, nowt to do till the next round 💪🙌You don't abandon your own.
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Get in, level pegging after three and my heart can't take it 😱🔥 Backs the All Blacks all the way tbh, we don't blink, the Boks do. France at 12 scares me a bit but nah, we've got this, through thick and thin. Ah well, no…"We've got this" based on what exactly, a gut feeling? Three rounds in and you're already calling it when France sits three behind and Scotland are right there on 11. The table's too tight to mean anything yet, and the run home surely splits them. Show me a reason the All Blacks don't blink and I'll listen.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Seen this tight a table before, usually gets decided on away trips late in the piece. Check as long as I have and you'll know nobody blinks, someone just runs out of legs. 😉Been here longer than some have followed.
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While everyone upstairs argues about who blinks, have a squint downstairs, because that's where the real carnage is. Fiji and Italy both sit on nought from three, and Japan's four points is the only thing between them and total irrelevance. With three games gone, that four-point gap is basically one win and a bonus point, so Japan know a slip and they're in the same mire. Caveat as always with my tables, small sample, three rounds tells you direction more than truth, but nought from three is nought from three. Fiji looked all attack and no nuts-and-bolts in the bits I watched, Italy just look flat, and neither of them has shown me a winnable fixture yet. If I were a punter eyeing the relegation line, I'd be backing Japan to limp clear simply because someone has to get off zero first, and they're the only side down there with points already banked. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Got NZ$20 on the All Blacks in the TAB futures market three weeks ago and I'm not touching it again at these odds, they're too short now. Backs them for the title though, France at 12 behind with a game in hand on nobody is still real pressure. Downstairs, Fiji on nought from three looks gone to me, Italy's defence might just pip Japan's four points, that relegation multi leg is the one keeping me up at night 😭💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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UnderdogNightmare's got it right I reckon, nobody blinks, legs just give out. Back in the day the big tests were always decided by who could still lift in the last twenty. And Paul_Fan, fair point about the run home, but France on 12 is close enough to smell the coffee, so I wouldn't write them off just yet. Ah well, we'll see 😄Seen it all, lads.
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Three rounds in and Metric_nerd is already writing eulogies about tired legs. Legs give out in round seven, mate. Right now France on 12 and Scotland on 11 can still overtake both of them on results alone.Sample first, conclusions after.
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nah, FixIsIn is right, we're three rounds in and both the Boks and the ABs are sitting on 15, France at 12 breathing down our necks 😱 I've coached enough junior footy to know nobody blinks, someone just stops lifting in the last twenty. reckon it goes down to whoever backs up better in those long travel weeks 💪🔥One love, one side ❤️
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Cantab and FixIsIn are onto something, three rounds is far too early for anyone's legs to be the story. My caveat is France at 12, if they string two more results together that futures market tightens fast and anything you took last week is already dead value. Put NZ$10 on the Boks each way head-to-head before this compressed table priced it up, only landed because nobody saw the deadlock coming 😭Value over a big price 💸
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Fair few of you talking about legs and fading already and I just smile at my screen. Back in my day we'd be three rounds into a tour and half the fellas were still on the plane home in their heads. Josh has got the sensible read though, France at 12 is the real story here, they win twice more and the whole table looks different. Nobody's blinking yet, and I'd argue nobody needs to. Two sides on 15, France and Scotland close enough to smell it, and down the bottom Fiji and Italy yet to get off the mark while Japan scrape by on 4. That's a long season squeezed into a tight little table, and the young lot never saw a race where everyone's still got a shout this deep in. Watch as long as I have and you'll learn the answer's never in round three. So who does blink first? Honestly, no idea, and I mean that as a compliment to the competition. Someone surprise me 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱