Northland written off already. Who's tipping them in Southland?
One bad half at Semenoff and suddenly Northland are duds? They put 52 on Wellington away and handled Waikato comfortably, that form doesn't just vanish. I'm on Northland to cover the line down in Invercargill on the 2nd, small stake at bookmaker because travel games are tricky, 1.5 units max, and if the head-to-head price sits above even money I'll bump it, that's real value over a big price chasing.
16 posts
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✓Ran the split on my sheet and there's a nuance here: Northland's two big wins (52 at Wellington, 34 v Waikato) came against sides that conceded possession, while both their losses (North Harbour 57, Counties Manukau 22) were teams that held the ball. Southland's style decides this, so the line matters more than the result. Backing Northland to cover, small stake, 1 NZ$.
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Ran the split on my sheet and there's a nuance here: Northland's two big wins (52 at Wellington, 34 v Waikato) came against sides that conceded possession, while both their losses (North Harbour 57, Counties Manukau 22) …That possession split reads nice on a sheet but Counties held the ball plenty and still only won by 3 at Semenoff, which tells me Northland's defence isn't the dealbreaker you're making it. I'd rather take the overs angle than touch the line down in Invercargill. Travel games swing weird, I got burnt on a multi there before 😭Bankroll discipline wins.
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SeenItAll telling anyone about overs after you tanked the Counties call is comedy gold 😂 Put your NZ$ where your sheet is, mate. 🤡💸Here to argue, not to nod along.
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FixIsInPTSD's split is the closest thing to a read here. Invercargill sides that grind possession usually travel well at home, so I'd take Southland plus the line, small stake. I could be wrong, but 52:28 flattered Northland.
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52 on Wellington was no fluke, NickDiehard, you watch it back 😤 anyone backing Southland at home better bring a warm coat and a receipt 💪🔥 our lot never make it easy tbhOne love, one side ❤️
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MillieFaithful, check the tape again. Wellington shipped tries in the last quarter with the game gone, so 52:28 overstates the gap. The away side's travel sample here is a split: a win in Wellington, a 42:57 hiding from North Harbour, which says road form depends entirely on Northland's set piece holding up. I'd pass the line altogether and take a modest overs stake, maybe NZ$20 of the bankroll, since either way this one's likely loose. I could be wrong, but at Rugby Park in early October the conditions usually decide it, not the season averages. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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FrontRowFan, they were up and flying way before the last quarter mate 😤 Northland by 7+ at Rugby Park, small punt on the TAB. through thick and thin with our lot 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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FrontRowFan's set piece point is the one worth keeping, because the Counties Manukau loss fits it too: when the scrum went backwards Northland stopped getting front-ball, and that's when the whole attack looked ordinary. There's a nuance here though, small sample though it is, the two wins came off clean set piece. I'll take Northland giving the line at Rugby Park, modest stake on the TAB, and trust the forwards to turn up before I trust Southland's defence. 📊Numbers > vibes.
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Fellas acting like Invercargill in October is a neutral venue 😱 everyone quoting scrum stats and road splits, but Southland's own form's done the talking at Rugby Park for years now. I was down there when our boys got turned over in the mud one wet August, memories never leave ya. Call it Northland by a whisker or nah, I'd keep my NZ$ multi away from this one tbh, ah well, nowt to do 🔥You don't abandon your own.
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FrontRowFan, fair on the set piece, but I'd add the Counties loss came on a six-day turnaround after that Wellington trip. Fresh legs at Rugby Park changes the maths, Northland by 6 for me.Do the math before you argue.
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Whinge all you want about the mud at Rugby Park, SeenItAllFaithful, but Northland just put 52 on Wellington AWAY so they can handle a road trip ffs 🔥 Six-day turnaround excuse works both ways too ChrisDiehard, Southland had to front up that same week. Nah, I'm going Northland by 8, small punt on the TAB ah well, nowt to do but back them 💪On the terraces since I was a kid.
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Rugby Park in early October, been burnt there more times than I care to count 💸 My slip was loading up on the away side down south a few seasons back, watched it die in the mud. Anyway, Northland's five-day gap and fresh…@Harry_Reds one blowout against a leaked-weakened Wellington isn't a road trip thesis. Show me the last three away results before I buy the 52 as a trend.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Word going round the club is Northland's forwards did an extra scrum session this week, take that for what it's worth 🤫 Counties game smelled like a tired pack to me, and Southland at Rugby Park is never a gimme for anyone. I'll still lean Northland by a whisker, small punt on the line only. 😏Word is… but you didn't hear it here 🤫
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Rugby Park in early October, been burnt there more times than I care to count 💸 My slip was loading up on the away side down south a few seasons back, watched it die in the mud. Anyway, Northland's five-day gap and fresh pack says they land under 10, so NZ$40 on them plus the line, and a small NZ$15 multi with the margin band. See you after the match 🍺Bankroll discipline wins.
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RobbedAgainHater318 makes a fair point, one big win doesn't tell you much. I only started watching the ITM Cup properly this season so still learning this, but muddy Rugby Park away trips always feel like a coin flip to me 😅 Does the line even move much for games like this?Learning from the veterans, go easy 🙏