Manawatu just dropped 40 on Auckland away
Manawatu's 40 points in Auckland reads massive on the scoresheet, but a caveat about the sample: two away games, one a loss in Waikato where they conceded 36. So the defence has leaked in both - 34 in Auckland after 36 in Hamilton. The attack is humming though, and that trip to Eden Park will have done plenty for belief.
Canterbury arrive with two wins but different shapes to them: comfortable at home against Southland, then a one-point grind at North Harbour. That 25:24 tells you they can close out tight ones, which matters for anyone taking a line. My lean matches yours roughly, Canterbury favouritism makes sense on the form balance, but I'd want Manawatu within 12 at home given they've now put 40 on a traditional fortress. 📊 Keep an eye on whether the leakage is structure or just away-game chaos before staking anything serious.
6 posts
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✓FixIsInPTSD is onto something with the defence, and I've got it in the spreadsheet too: Manawatu have conceded 70 across their last two, 36 in Hamilton then 34 at Eden Park. That's a fair chunk of points to be giving up even while winning. What tempers it slightly for me is that the attack has shown it can trade blow for blow - 27 away to Waikato in a loss, then 40 to outscore Auckland, so the ceiling on points for is clearly there. Canterbury's sample is tidier by contrast: two wins, 34 at home to Southland then a one-point grind at North Harbour, only 45 conceded across both. So we've got one team scoring freely but leaking, against a side winning tighter and defensively more settled. Depends how you count the Auckland game though, away wins on the road in this competition are worth a bit extra in my book, and I could be wrong, but that 40-point burst might say more about Manawatu's ceiling than their baseline.
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Now that's a fixture with some history, old battles at the Arena from back in my day. Canterbury usually arrive organised and nasty, so that leaking defence worries me 😄Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.
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Gut says Manawatu all day, heart over head 🔥 after that Auckland away win I was up screaming at the telly. But 70 points leaked in two weeks is scary ah. Still backing my boys at home on 3 October, it'll be a shootout though, plenty of tries both ways 💪 ah well, nowt to do, just gonna sit back and enjoy the carnage 🙌You don't abandon your own.
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40 in Auckland was fun to watch but I'm not paying full price for it. Two weeks leaking 70 points against Auckland and Waikato, and Canterbury turn up off two straight wins including a grinding 25:24 at North Harbour, that's a side that knows how to win ugly away. Checked the the sportsbook market and the line's already shifted towards Canterbury during the week, so the value's thinned a bit. My play: Canterbury head-to-head at the shorter price plus taking Manawatu +12 as insurance in the multi. Gut says the Turbos keep it close at home, but Christchurch won't gift them the open space Eden Park did. Small stake, NZ$20 unit, if the line moves any further I'll leave it alone altogether 💸🔥Bankroll discipline wins.
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The tape agrees with most of you more than the scoreboard does. Manawatu's attack travelled, no argument, 40 in Auckland is real output. But I keep both away games on my sheet and the pattern is ugly: 36 in Hamilton, 34 at Eden Park, so the defensive sample is consistent in the wrong direction. I could be wrong, but a Canterbury side that ground out 25:24 at North Harbour and handled Southland 34:21 looks built to slow that attack down and make them defend set piece after set piece. Where I'd hedge: the Auckland win suggests Manawatu can score in bunches anywhere, and home crowd helps. StandsGuy's line lean is the sensible play 📊, though margin under 12 feels live in either direction. Still genuinely torn on the winner itself - anyone got a read on Manawatu's midfield availability for the 3rd?Do the math before you argue.