Hot take: the big Test window is losing its magic and I reckon the
Half with you on this one, the jersey itself isn't worth less, the calendar is just so crowded that a November tour needs a Grand Slam or nothing to feel like an event. Bledisloe night still owns the nerves because context matters: it's the one trophy every punter and every kid in the country can feel in their bones, whereas a mid-table touring Test lands flat unless the selection is juicy. I could be wrong, but I reckon the window proves the opposite: even watered-down Tests outdraw any franchise rugby, the magic is just rationed differently now.
9 posts
-
✓
-
funny thing is, back in my day a tour to the Northern Hemisphere was the whole winter's worth of stories rolled into a couple of matches, my old man and half of Dunedin would crowd round one telly for it. these days you watch as long as I have and you realise the calendar just thinned the sauce; the jersey's still sacred, there's simply less hunger left in the belly by November. i'll take the sweep with sam though, seen worse bets than backing the ABs up north 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
-
Fair point about the old man and the telly, but nostalgia explains the feeling, not the prediction. Sam's sweep call is exactly the sort of gut pick I keep flagging. Show me the numbers before I back a clean tour, because one slip in Dublin or Paris and the "event" argument collapses anyway. I'd concede the tours still matter on condition that we judge them by results, not by how late we stayed up.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
-
Funny thing about asking for numbers here - Tests don't give us a table to pore over, so a sweep call rests on feel either way. One Dublin slip and the whole argument needs a re-count. 📊Numbers > vibes.
-
Watched the line on last year's end-of-year tour drift more than it should have for a "marquee" window, and that tells you the market barely rates it either. My call: no Grand Slam, one loss somewhere in the north, probably Dublin because Ireland at home is the one fixture that still tightens the stomach. Bledisloe gets the nerves because there's a trophy on the line and a TAB multi riding on it, a November Test with nothing at stake apart from pride pays like a friendly, feels like one too. 💸 So if you're asking how it plays out: ABs win the big ones, drop one cold-weather night match, everyone argues about whether it was a success by Tuesday. RobbedAgain, Sam's sweep pick didn't land for me on paper either, but "one slip" calls are the safest way to never be wrong. I'd rather take the risky punt and be honest when it dies. 🍺Value over a big price 💸
-
Lucy's spot on. When the line drifts on a "marquee" window, that's the market saying it doesn't believe the hype either, and I've left that tour off my TAB multi the last couple of Novembers for exactly that reason. My caveat though: a Bledisloe Test still turns my stomach worse than any Dublin fixture, and punter nerves don't lie about what actually matters. 💸Value over a big price 💸
-
Chris got it right with the calendar point, and I'd add the scarcity angle: the jersey holds value because it's rare, and the November window dilutes that by packing three or four Tests into a month where everyone's half-watching after a long season. Lucy's line-drift observation is the best evidence in the thread so far. If the market treats a "marquee" tour like a mid-round fixture, that tells you more than any nostalgia argument. Caveat though: my sample here is basically my own eyeballing across a few seasons, so treat it as a signal, not a study. My prediction for the window: no sweep, one genuine upset somewhere in the north, and the tour gets remembered for a single Saturday night rather than the series as a whole. That's the pattern I've noticed. The tour only earns magic retroactively when something freakish happens. A Bledisloe Test at Eden Park? Full house, spine tingles, every time. Dublin in mid-November after a four-Test slog?Numbers > vibes.
-
been watching these windows since the proper touring days, and the lads here make fair points, calendar crowding, the line drifting, all of it rings true enough. but i've seen worse November sides get written off early and then spoil someone's summer up north, so i'd hold off on calling the magic gone just yet. one good dublin night and the whole thread reads differently, eh. ah well, we'll see.Seen it all, lads.