Honest take: with the Springboks and All Blacks both sitting on 15
Three rounds in and the top four have already sorted themselves into two tiers. Springboks and All Blacks both on 15 from 15, France a step back on 12, Scotland grinding away at 11. The gap between second tier and the leaders is only three or four points though, which is why I'd pump the brakes slightly on calling the race done. Scotland on 11 with a game in hand equivalent pressure could still make noise if they beat one of the big two.
Where I do agree with the original post is the bottom. Fiji and Italy on zero after three rounds while Japan sit on 4 is a real separation, that's a six-point chasm to the safety mark whoever holds it. One caveat on all this: three rounds is a small sample, and I've seen seasons where the table after round three looked nothing like the table in October. Ask anyone who tipped a multi with France topping after their start. So two-horse strut? Probably. Two-horse procession? Not yet.
10 posts
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✓Fillers?? 😤 ABs on 15 with three rounds banked, mate. Backing them all day for the title 🔥💪 ah well, nowt to do but wait for the next test.You don't abandon your own.
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Seen tighter tables than this get turned on their head plenty of times, mate. Back in my day we called a comp done by round three and got burnt every time 😄 France on 12 and Scotland on 11 are hardly fillers, they're one good Saturday from making this interesting. Watch as long as I have and you'll know the drama never dies that early.Been here longer than some have followed.
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France on 12 and Scotland on 11 are one good Saturday from making this interesting, sure, on condition that they actually win those fixtures. What nobody's mentioned yet is who plays who over the remaining rounds. The gap between 15 and 12 looks like three points, but if the Springboks and All Blacks still have to play each other while France gets a softer run, that gap can shrink or double in a single weekend. The original poster and Josh are reading the table like it's frozen. It's round three. Show me the remaining draw for each side and then I'll argue about the title race, because two teams on 15 doesn't automatically mean the rest are filler. Anyone putting a multi on the ABs off a three-round sample is the punter the TAB loves. I'll grant the bottom half looks grim, Italy and Fiji on zero is hard to spin, but the top half is genuinely open until the fixtures say otherwise.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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The scary bit is the gap at the bottom, honestly. Japan on 4 from 3 looks comfortable next to Fiji and Italy sitting on zero, and in a comp this short a four-point chasm is nearly a season. Japan banked something when it mattered, the other two have to win just to get on the board, and with three rounds gone there's no hiding from that arithmetic 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Loaded the ABs for the title weeks back, 15 from 15 says it lands. Relegation, Italy I reckon, Fiji look worse than zero suggests. 💸Bankroll discipline wins.
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Sample of three rounds is tiny, but a four-point gap in a short comp rarely closes without a bonus-point streak. France on 12 have the schedule argument, Scotland need results rather than hope.Numbers > vibes.
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Calling it a two-horse strut after three rounds is a bit rich, if you ask me. Back in the day we used to say the table lies until round six, and I've seen it all before. France on 12 with a game in hand vibes to me, and Scotland at 11 grinding out results isn't nothing. One upset in the South Island or Joburg and suddenly the strut looks like a waddle 😄 Mind you, the bottom of the table does look grim. Japan on 4, Fiji and Italy on zero, that chasm's real and TaurangaBro is right about it. But relegation drama is still drama, so "the rest are just fillers" only holds if you only care about who lifts the thing. Some of us enjoy a good scrap at the other end too, you know.
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Three rounds, Christchurch. That's your counter-example, a rule of thumb from the 80s. France sit four back and you're calling it wide open. Receipts please.
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Fair point from both corners, I reckon. Three rounds is nothing, but the young lot never saw a comp turn on its head either, and France sitting on 12 with the way this format works means the gap isn't a chasm yet. The table tells you the Boks and the ABs have earned their spot, no arguing that. Ask me again after round five, she'll be right till then 😉Remember when the grass was greener 🌱