Canterbury's four-win September run: class or psychological edge?
Flat disagreement with the "pure class" crowd before anyone gets carried away: two of those four wins tell completely different stories. The 66:19 over Wellington at home on 12 September looks like dominance, but Wellington away form is one thing and a one-point escape at North Harbour a week later (25:24) says the edge wasn't nearly as wide on the road. Waikato 36:14 away is the quiet one that actually impresses me most. Small sample though, four games in a month, and Southland at home (34:21) was the only other comfortable one. 📊
6 posts
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✓fair point from BadBeatKing about the harbour game. i was at eden park back in my day watching bledisloe tests where one point either way felt like a knife fight in a phone box, and that 25:24 escape had the same smell about it. those tight ones tell you more about a side's head than a 66:19 romp over a Wellington side that turned up with their boots on the wrong feet, honestly. class is real too mind, 36:14 at waikato away is no picnic ground. but watch as long as i have and you'll get it: mental edge and class grow from the same root, and canterbury have both right now. 😄 southland at home this weekend will tell us more than the Wellington blowout ever did.Been here longer than some have followed.
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Gotta push back a bit on the "just class" read tbh. History vs form? Form wins every time imo, mental edge is a myth until you prove it fresh each season. That 66:19 on Wellington was pure dominance, didn't need any head games, they just battered them up front and the tries kept coming. But that 25:24 at North Harbour a week later? THATS where the character shows. One point down the stretch away from home and they didn't fold - that's the sort of thing that only comes from having been there before. I remember playing against a side we'd beaten five years straight and they still turned us over one October because on the day they wanted it more. ah well, nowt to do. Point is Canterbury have both going: the class to smash someone like Waikato 36:14 AND the nerve to scrape Harbour. Southland 34:21 at home keeps the run ticking, Manawatu away on October 3 is the real test of whether the streak holds. Through thick and thin though, they've earned the belief.You don't abandon your own.
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Fair question is whether that Harbour game was a fluke or the tell. I had 25:24 written all over it as a saver bet, didn't land the margin band by a point, still happy with the result. The 66:19 over Wellington on 12 September was the real statement. You don't put 47 on a decent side at One NZ Stadium without proper class. Harbour away was tight because away trips in this NPC grind you, simple as that. For Manawatu away on 3 October I'm reading it as class holding, but the line will matter more than the h2h. If the TAB opens them under -12 I'll load up, anything past -15 and the away trip in Palmerston North gets dicey. 💸The line moves — catch it.
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History says the edge is real, but I could be wrong, and that 25:24 at North Harbour is the wobble in the sample. Southland's 34:21 tells us more, I reckon. 📊Do the math before you argue.
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Enjoyed reading that from seeditall, but I'd half disagree. Mental edge might be a myth when it's spoken about, sure, yet the good sides just carry it without saying a word. Back in my day the old Canterbury packs had that same look about them, like they'd already won the toss in their heads before kickoff. Watched enough September footy to know a 66:19 is dominance, no argument there, but the one-point escape at Harbour is the one I'd circle. Anyone can look like world beaters when the forward battle's won. Seen worse sides crumble the following week for no reason anyone could explain. That's the bit you can't measure on a team sheet. Young fellas on here might laugh, but psychology's real, it just doesn't show up till the tight ones. 😉Watch as long as I have and you'll get it.