Honest question, family: is Damian McKenzie still our best first
Seriously though, watching McKenzie under pressure is just a massive spectacle, isn't it? I don't think dropping him because someone's statistically calmer is a real move for the Chiefs. You're valuing consistency over a genuine match-winner, which is why some punters miss the value in his high-risk kick.
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✓You say dropping him isn't a real move, on condition that you can show me why calm off the boot matters less than his running game. I rate Damian, but that wide kick at Waikato Stadium still stings.Numbers are honest, takes aren't.
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Nah that Waikato kick still hurts 😭 but who else runs a game like Dmac?? One kick don't erase what he gives us. Our lot never make it easy, heart says it all 🖤❤️
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I saw him put a bit of flair on display the other day against the Hurricanes, and it really got me thinking about this specific question people are throwing around. It's a toss-up between raw brilliance and pure predictability, isn't it? Looking purely at the output, Damian’s impact is disproportionate to the occasional error because his overall efficiency in attacking zones is truly elite. When he plays, the opposition has to dedicate more resources to containing him, which frees up space for the rest of the backline. For instance, if you look at the average gain in metres per carry in our recent mid-week fixtures, his threat forces coverage shifts that fundamentally alter how the defensive line operates, something a purely tactical kicker just doesn't replicate. Changing the playmaster because of one spectacular miss, even at Waikato, discounts the massive statistical advantage he gives us in terms of attacking pressure.Numbers > vibes.
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i remember the greats who never kicked true every time either. back in the day we had first fives at eden park who'd fling the ball wide with the game on the line and half of hamilton screaming at the telly, and nobody was asking for a safer pair of hands. it was just accepted that brilliance comes with a few misses attached. so yeah, that waikato kick still stings, i won't pretend otherwise. watch as long as i have and you'll get it though: you don't remember the missed goals in ten years' time, you remember the no-look pass against the hurricanes that had the whole ground up. calm heads win you tight rounds sometimes, but they don't fill the stands. dmac keeps the keys until someone actually takes them off him, not until we get nervous on his behalf 😄Been here longer than some have followed.
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Funny how nobody mentions the running threat comes off the boot decisions too, eh. Dmac hesitating over a shot gives the defence an extra half second to drift, and that's exactly how that Waikato kick ended up wide. Shaw's steadier, sure, but can he punish a rushed defence the same? Source on that before I trade away the running game.
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There's a nuance here I keep coming back to when I'm filling out my spreadsheet each round. Dmac's hesitation before that Waikato kick and Shaw's steadier boot are basically the same coin viewed from two sides. The delay that GloryDays mentioned costs half a second, sure, but the same running threat is what drags two defenders out of the line and creates the shot in the first place. I could be wrong, but I suspect the calm option and the dangerous option rarely live in the same body at ten. What I genuinely can't settle from my own tracking is whether the Chiefs' attack drops off with a safer first five or whether we'd just lose a bit less sleep. Small sample though, one heartbreaker and one good showing against the Hurricanes isn't enough to hand over the keys. 📊 Maybe the honest answer is we don't pick between them, we pick the game we're playing. Happy to keep arguing this one all season, family.Numbers > vibes.